Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Brazil IP Surges While Services PMI Cools
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 170,331.00 | -2.22% |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.19% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.91 | +0.35% |
| Vale | 15.90 | -1.00% |
| Petrobras | 18.02 | -0.93% |
| WTI Crude | 92.72 | -0.34% |
| Gold | 4,491.70 | +0.36% |
| Bitcoin | 62,523.45 | -2.00% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 14.75% | -1.01% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 52.30 | - | 50.40 |
| Trade Balance | 10,540m | 7,650m | 7,820m |
Brazil Exports Value | Type: macro_line | USD mn: 14.26 (2026-04-01) | Range: -15.76–52.25 | Trend(6pt): 34.98,17.34,0.5414,-5.056,7.406,14.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Industrial production rose 0.7% MoM, beating consensus of 0.4%, while services PMI fell to 50.4 from 52.3.
- Bovespa declined 2.22% and USD/BRL eased 0.19% to 5.07 amid mixed external flows.
- Selic remains at 14.75% with XP and Fitch signaling limited further cuts this year.
Yesterday's Recap
Brazilian industrial output expanded 0.7% month-over-month, exceeding the 0.4% consensus and prior 0.3% print and pointing to resilient manufacturing. The S&P Global services PMI contracted to 50.4 from 52.3, signaling cooling momentum in the dominant services sector. The trade surplus reached 7.82 billion USD, slightly above the 7.65 billion consensus.
Bovespa fell 2.22% to 170,331 while USD/BRL eased to 5.07. Vale and Petrobras shares declined 1.00% and 0.93% respectively. The short-term rate closed at 14.75%.
Brazilian ADRs in New York slipped 0.12% despite a higher Dow Jones. Fitch highlighted stronger 2026 GDP prospects yet cautioned that inflation above target, a higher Selic path and elections will complicate policy. XP sees the Selic stalling near 14% with only a cumulative 100bp reduction possible this year.
Real-estate funds offering CDI plus 0.94% gained favor among analysts seeking duration in a high-rate environment. Brazil’s large lithium reserves remain largely undeveloped while global demand accelerates. Oil output expansion plans continue as Asian buyers seek alternatives to Iranian supply.
The Day Ahead
No major Brazilian data releases are scheduled for today or tomorrow. Markets will focus on follow-through from yesterday’s industrial and PMI prints. Investor attention turns to any fresh comments from BCB officials on inflation persistence.
External drivers include US tariff proposals and global oil price movements. Local equity and FX desks expect range-bound trading absent new catalysts. Fiscal and electoral themes flagged by Fitch remain in view for positioning.
Other Economic Notes
The US proposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods, raising immediate concerns for the footwear export sector. Brazil stands to benefit from higher Asian demand for its oil as importers diversify away from Iran. Global gold prices rose 0.36% to 4,491.70, supporting commodity-linked Brazilian assets.
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