| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,340.00 | -0.47% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | -0.12% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | -0.76% |
| WTI Crude | 72.25 | +7.80% |
| Natural Gas | 2.98 | +4.41% |
| Gold | 5,398.50 | +3.21% |
| Brent Crude | 78.71 | +8.60% |
| Bitcoin | 66,364.57 | +0.95% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.06% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.40% | +0.41% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.40 | - | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-03-06) | |||
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 50.90 | 51.10 | 05:00 |
Canadian markets closed lower as global oil volatility dominated trading, with the S&P/TSX Composite declining 0.47% to 34,340.00, dragged by weakness in tech and consumer stocks offsetting energy gains. USD/CAD edged down 0.12% to 1.37, supported by higher oil prices bolstering the loonie as Canada benefits from export revenues. EUR/CAD fell 0.76% to 1.60, reflecting broader euro weakness amid European economic concerns.Energy commodities rallied sharply, with WTI Crude soaring 7.80% to $72.25 and Brent Crude up 8.60% to $78.71, fueled by fears of supply disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict. Natural Gas rose 4.41% to $2.98, while Gold climbed 3.21% to $5,398.50 as a safe haven. Canada 10Y Government Bond yields increased 0.41 percentage points to 3.40%, signaling persistent inflation worries, though the 2Y yield dipped 0.06 percentage points to 2.25%.No major data releases occurred, but markets reacted to global news, with Bitcoin gaining 0.95% to $66,364.57.
Today's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index, due at 04:30 ET, follows a previous reading of 50.4, with no consensus estimate available; a figure above 50 would signal expansion and support CAD strength. Markets anticipate medium impact, potentially influencing BoC rate expectations amid manufacturing's role in GDP. Looking further, Friday's Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted at 05:00 ET carries high impact, with consensus at 51.1 versus prior 50.9, offering insights into broader business conditions.Stronger PMI data could reduce odds of near-term rate cuts. No events are scheduled for tomorrow, allowing focus on global developments. Traders should monitor energy prices for spillover effects on Canadian assets.
Broader Canadian themes include persistent inflation pressures, with verified CPI YoY at 2.32% as of March 2025, complicating BoC's path to easing. Housing market softness persists amid high rates, as elevated borrowing costs curb demand and construction. Energy sector dynamics remain pivotal, with oil price surges enhancing fiscal revenues but risking imported inflation.
Global oil prices surged amid escalating Middle East conflict, with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran raising supply disruption fears, pushing WTI to $72.25 and Brent to $78.71, directly benefiting Canada's export-heavy economy. OPEC+ confirmed a 206k barrel-a-day production hike for April, yet ongoing tensions could sustain high prices, supporting Canadian energy firms and TSX resources. Gold rose 3.21% to $5,398.50 on safe-haven demand, indirectly aiding Canadian mining stocks.U.S.-Iran war powers debates in Congress add uncertainty, potentially disrupting global trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz, impacting Canadian crude exports. India-Canada trade talks aim for a pact by year-end, targeting $50bn bilateral trade by 2030, including uranium deals, which could diversify Canadian exports amid commodity volatility. European housing price rises contrast with Canada's cooling market, highlighting divergent rate cycles.Crypto optimism lifted Bitcoin to $66,364.57, with minor effects on Canadian fintech. Overall, these factors heighten volatility for CAD and bonds.
The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% as of January 2026, emphasizing a data-dependent approach in recent communications to balance inflation control and growth support. Forward guidance from the latest Monetary Policy Report suggests vigilance on core inflation, with no immediate cuts signaled amid global uncertainties. Quantitative tightening continues, reducing the balance sheet to normalize policy, which has supported higher bond yields and CAD stability.Recent Governing Council decisions underscore caution, with the committee voting to hold rates steady, interpreting hotter data as transient but warranting monitoring. This stance implies markets may see delayed easing, pricing in potential cuts later in 2026 if CPI trends toward the 2% target. BoC statements highlight risks from energy shocks, as seen in current oil rallies, potentially delaying normalization.Overall, this positions Canadian assets for resilience in volatile global conditions.