Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMI Rises Amid Iran War Risks
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,942.90 | +0.47% |
| USD/CAD | 1.36 | -0.29% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.58 | -0.33% |
| WTI Crude | 77.04 | +3.19% |
| Natural Gas | 2.97 | +1.92% |
| Gold | 5,176.20 | +1.09% |
| Brent Crude | 83.54 | +2.63% |
| Bitcoin | 72,930.20 | +0.30% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.06% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.40% | +0.41% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.40 | - | 51 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-03-06) | |||
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 50.90 | 51.10 | 05:00 |
- Canadian Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.0 in February, indicating modest expansion despite global tensions.
- TSX advanced 0.47% on energy gains, with CAD firming against USD and EUR.
- Bonds sold off globally as Middle East conflict revives inflation concerns, lifting yields.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets displayed resilience yesterday, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index closing at 33,942.90, up 0.47%, supported by strength in energy and mining sectors amid elevated commodity prices. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February registered at 51.0, surpassing the previous 50.4 and signaling slight growth in the sector despite supply chain worries from Middle East unrest. USD/CAD declined 0.29% to 1.36, while EUR/CAD fell 0.33% to 1.58, bolstered by CAD gains on higher oil prices.
WTI Crude jumped 3.19% to 77.04, and Brent Crude increased 2.63% to 83.54, fueled by geopolitical tensions in Iran and risks of supply interruptions. Natural Gas rose 1.92% to 2.97, aided by demand outlooks, while Gold advanced 1.09% to 5,176.20 as a safe-haven asset. Bitcoin edged up 0.30% to 72,930.20.
Canada 2Y Government Yield slipped 0.06% to 2.25%, while the 10Y Yield rose 0.41% to 3.40%, reflecting mixed signals on inflation amid war jitters. Equities encountered pressure from conflict-related selloffs, but domestic data helped maintain overall sentiment.
The Day Ahead
Tomorrow features the Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted release at 05:00 ET on March 6, with consensus at 51.1 versus the previous 50.9, serving as a high-impact gauge of broader business activity. This could shape Bank of Canada policy expectations, particularly if it points to ongoing economic strength. No significant Canadian events are set for today, giving markets time to process global news such as the intensifying Middle East conflict.
Traders will watch commodity prices closely due to their vulnerability to geopolitical updates. Focus may also shift to corporate developments, including recent announcements from companies like Parex Resources, which reported 2025 results and a Q1 2026 dividend, and SSR Mining, which agreed to sell its stake in the Çöpler Mine for $1.5 billion.
Other Economic Notes
Canadian economic trends emphasize ongoing inflation challenges, with CPI YoY at 2.32% as of March 2025, hindering the return to target levels. The energy sector plays a critical role, as climbing crude and natural gas prices enhance exports but could amplify domestic costs. (cont...)
