Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMI Edges Up as TSX Slips on War Fears
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,610.00 | -0.98% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | +0.11% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.59 | -0.02% |
| WTI Crude | 86.09 | +6.27% |
| Natural Gas | 3.06 | +2.03% |
| Gold | 5,089.00 | +0.47% |
| Brent Crude | 89.34 | +4.60% |
| Bitcoin | 69,824.49 | -1.44% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.06% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.40% | +0.41% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 50.40 | - | 51 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 50.90 | 51.10 | 05:00 |
- Canadian Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.0 in February, indicating modest expansion despite global disruptions.
- S&P/TSX fell 0.98% amid Middle East tensions, with energy prices surging on supply concerns.
- USD/CAD ticked up 0.11% as oil gains supported the loonie, offsetting broader market weakness.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets encountered volatility on March 5, 2026, with the S&P/TSX Composite closing down 0.98% at 33,610.00, driven by declines in mining and energy sectors amid escalating Middle East geopolitical risks. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February increased to 51.0 from 50.4, reflecting slight growth in manufacturing activity despite ongoing supply chain challenges. USD/CAD rose 0.11% to 1.37, buoyed by a 6.27% jump in WTI Crude to 86.09 due to war-related supply disruptions, while Brent Crude climbed 4.60% to 89.34.
Natural Gas advanced 2.03% to 3.06, aided by favorable weather-driven demand. Government bond yields showed mixed moves, with the 2-year yield dipping 0.06% to 2.25% on safe-haven demand, but the 10-year yield increasing 0.41% to 3.40% amid inflation worries. Gold rose 0.47% to 5,089.00 as a volatility hedge, while Bitcoin fell 1.44% to 69,824.49.
EUR/CAD edged down 0.02% to 1.59.
The Day Ahead
March 6, 2026, features the Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted at 5:00 ET, with consensus forecasting a rise to 51.1 from 50.9, which could signal continued business momentum. A better-than-expected reading might alleviate slowdown concerns and bolster CAD against key pairs. TSX futures may react, particularly in sectors tied to business activity.
No additional major Canadian releases are slated, allowing global developments to shape sentiment. Energy market fluctuations remain a focus following recent crude price spikes.
Other Economic Notes
Canadian manufacturing shows resilience with the PMI uptick, navigating global economic fractures from Middle East conflicts that prompt supply chain adjustments. Small businesses face heightened costs in this volatile environment, as highlighted in reports, straining profitability and capital spending. The energy sector benefits from elevated oil and gas prices, enhancing Canada's export position amid high global demand.
