| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,083.70 | -1.57% |
| USD/CAD | 1.35 | -0.96% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.57 | -1.34% |
| WTI Crude | 102.68 | +12.96% |
| Natural Gas | 3.37 | +5.78% |
| Gold | 5,099.80 | -0.90% |
| Brent Crude | 104.83 | +13.10% |
| Bitcoin | 67,683.50 | +2.60% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.06% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.40% | +0.41% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-03-12) | |||
| Trade Balance | -1,310m | -1,100m | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-03-13) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.50 | 6.60 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | -24,800 | 9,500 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 44,900 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | -69,700 | - | 04:30 |
Canadian markets faced sharp volatility yesterday, fueled by intensifying Iran war tensions that drove energy prices upward while weighing on equities. The S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 1.57% to 33,083.70, its largest decline since April's tariff turmoil, as mining stocks slumped under global risk aversion. USD/CAD declined 0.96% to 1.35, signaling CAD resilience bolstered by elevated oil prices amid uncertainty, while EUR/CAD fell 1.34% to 1.57 due to ECB policy differences.Government bond yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield slipping 0.06% to 2.25% and the 10-year yield climbing 0.41% to 3.40%, reflecting inflation persistence bets. Commodities led the action, with WTI Crude surging 12.96% to $102.68 and Natural Gas rising 5.78% to 3.37 on Middle East disruption concerns, though Gold eased 0.90% to 5,099.80 as safe-haven appeal softened. Bitcoin advanced 2.60% to 67,683.50.No significant data releases happened, but echoes from earlier employment data fostered cautious sentiment. These shifts highlighted Canada's vulnerability to international energy disruptions and forex swings.
Attention turns to Thursday's Trade Balance at 4:30 ET, with consensus for a deficit shrinking to -1.1 billion from -1.31 billion prior, possibly indicating export strength from high oil prices. Friday features the high-impact Headline Unemployment Rate at 4:30 ET, expected to tick up to 6.6% from 6.5%, plus Employment Change forecast at +9,500 following -24,800 previously. Full-Time Employment Change was +44,900 last, Part-Time -69,700, and Labor Force Participation at 65%, with no new consensus.These metrics could sway Bank of Canada rate outlooks if they reveal labor market weakening. Volatility may persist from global events, with no releases today or tomorrow.
Canada's economy shows energy sector durability amid the Iran war, as rising oil prices aid producers but heighten national inflation worries. Verified CPI stands at 2.32% YoY, pointing to easing pressures, though core factors might postpone policy easing. Forthcoming jobs data could signal emerging slack, supporting spending yet pressuring wages.
The Iran conflict disrupts global energy, driving oil above $100 and inflating fears that hit Canada's export economy. G7 ministers meet on Iran tensions, risking trade impacts and CAD effects. Trump's tariffs and campaigns increase volatility, with China stressing stability in shifting chains, affecting Canadian commodities.ECB eyes a stronger euro, potentially weighing on EUR/CAD and Canadian exports to Europe. Bond markets suffer their worst week since April from Middle East inflation concerns, echoing Canadian yield rises. Poland holds off rate cuts until the war ends, mirroring BoC caution.AI agents reshape US and Canadian offices, possibly enhancing tech productivity amid uncertainty. These factors amplify risks for Canadian energy and mining assets.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% in the most recent meeting, adopting a prudent approach with CPI at 2.32% YoY indicating slowing inflation but still above target. Officials stress data-driven decisions, monitoring global risks like the Iran war's energy effects. The committee voted to hold rates, continuing quantitative tightening for balance sheet normalization without market disruption.Projections suggest possible easing if inflation declines further, but persistent core elements may prolong the hold. This stance limits near-term CAD weakening, aiding yield steadiness. Markets see it as balanced, anticipating potential 2026 cuts if jobs soften.The BoC prioritizes stability against external shocks.