| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,189.30 | +0.32% |
| USD/CAD | 1.36 | -0.25% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.58 | +0.82% |
| WTI Crude | 89.26 | -5.81% |
| Natural Gas | 3.13 | +0.22% |
| Gold | 5,188.00 | +1.90% |
| Brent Crude | 87.60 | -11.48% |
| Bitcoin | 70,713.17 | +3.38% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.06% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.40% | +0.41% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-03-12) | |||
| Trade Balance | -1,310m | -1,100m | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-03-13) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.50 | 6.60 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | -24,800 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 44,900 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | -69,700 | - | 04:30 |
Canadian markets showed resilience yesterday amid heightened global tensions from the Iran conflict, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index closing up 0.32% at 33,189.30, driven by gains in mining and financials offsetting energy sector losses. No major data releases occurred, but sentiment was influenced by corporate news, including Aecon Utilities' U.S. expansion and Tilray's acquisition of BrewDog Australia, which supported modest equity inflows.USD/CAD fell 0.25% to 1.36, reflecting CAD strength on safe-haven gold demand, as prices rose 1.90% to 5,188.00. EUR/CAD climbed 0.82% to 1.58, pressured by eurozone inflation worries tied to energy shocks. WTI Crude dropped 5.81% to 89.26 and Brent Crude plunged 11.48% to 87.60, despite earlier war-driven surges, as traders assessed potential supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.Natural Gas edged up 0.22% to 3.13, buoyed by domestic demand forecasts. Bitcoin advanced 3.38% to 70,713.17, amid broader risk appetite. Government bond yields diverged, with the 2Y down 0.06% to 2.25% and 10Y up 0.41% to 3.40%, signaling mixed bets on Bank of Canada policy amid inflation risks.
No significant Canadian economic data or events are scheduled for today, allowing markets to digest ongoing global developments. Attention turns to Thursday's Trade Balance release at 4:30 ET, with consensus expecting a deficit narrowing to -1.1 billion from the previous -1.31 billion, potentially influencing CAD if exports rebound on commodity strength. Friday brings a high-impact Headline Unemployment Rate at 4:30 ET, forecasted at 6.6% from 6.5%, alongside Employment Change consensus of 10,000 after -24,800 prior.Other labor metrics, including Full-Time Employment Change from 44,900 prior, Part-Time from -69,700, and Labor Force Participation from 65%, will provide deeper insights into workforce dynamics. These releases could sway expectations for Bank of Canada easing, especially if wage pressures persist. Broader focus remains on energy market volatility from the Iran war.
Broader Canadian economic themes highlight resilience in commodities despite geopolitical risks, with gold's 1.90% gain underscoring its role as a hedge against inflation spurred by oil disruptions. (cont...)
Persistent CPI at 2.32% YoY as of March 2025 signals stable but watchful inflation environment, potentially delaying further BoC rate adjustments from the current 2.25%. Corporate activities, such as acquisitions by Tilray and Aecon, point to strategic expansions in beverages and utilities, bolstering long-term growth amid uncertain trade balances. Additional news includes Movellus' IP selection for radiation-hardened FPGA programs, enGene's financial update with planned data releases, Kinaxis' issuer bid amendment, QXO's women in roofing campaign, KNAPP's customer service model promotion, Omni-Lite's leadership transition for aerospace acquisitions, and Osisko Development's $24.9 million from warrant exercises.
Global markets grapple with fallout from Trump's war on Iran, driving oil prices above $90 earlier before yesterday's pullback, fueling inflation fears across major economies. South African bonds plunged amid rand weakness and energy cost surges, mirroring potential pressures on Canadian exports. Euro options turned most bearish since 2022, reflecting prolonged Middle East conflict risks that could weaken EUR/CAD further.Japan's stagflation concerns mount with $100 oil and yen depreciation, indirectly supporting CAD strength against Asian currencies. Bank of England policymakers may overlook another energy shock in upcoming decisions, contrasting with BoC's data-dependent approach. U.S.oil's record weekly gain disrupts energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting Canadian crude differentials. Big bond markets faced their worst week since April, stoking inflation angst that could elevate Canadian yields if war persists. Additional reports note pyridine market growth projections and policy choices explaining gas price spikes unrelated to direct war effects.
The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% in its latest decision as of January 2026, emphasizing a data-dependent approach amid stable inflation at 2.32% YoY. Recent communications from Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes reiterated vigilance on wage growth and external shocks, without signaling imminent changes to quantitative tightening. Forward guidance from the Monetary Policy Report highlights balanced risks, with no rush to ease given resilient employment trends, though energy volatility from the Iran war could prompt reassessment.Markets interpret this as supportive of gradual normalization, pricing in potential cuts later in 2026 if CPI remains contained. Governing Council statements focus on monitoring global disruptions, implying CAD stability as a buffer against imported inflation. This stance bolsters short-term bond yields, with the 2Y at 2.25% aligning closely to the policy rate.Overall, BoC's communications suggest markets should prepare for prolonged steady rates amid geopolitical uncertainties.