| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,270.70 | +0.25% |
| USD/CAD | 1.36 | -0.11% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.58 | +0.71% |
| WTI Crude | 85.01 | +1.87% |
| Natural Gas | 3.05 | +0.99% |
| Gold | 5,197.20 | -0.62% |
| Brent Crude | 86.02 | -2.03% |
| Bitcoin | 69,645.79 | -0.40% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.06% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.40% | +0.41% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-03-12) | |||
| Trade Balance | -1,310m | -900m | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-03-13) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.50 | 6.60 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | -24,800 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 44,900 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | -69,700 | - | 04:30 |
Canadian markets posted modest gains yesterday as the S&P/TSX Composite rose to 33,270.70, up 0.25% amid volatility from Middle East tensions. Gains were led by energy sectors despite mixed oil signals, with WTI Crude up 1.87% to $85.01 on supply risk fears, while Brent Crude fell 2.03% to $86.02 due to demand uncertainties. Natural Gas climbed 0.99% to $3.05, reflecting potential disruptions, and Gold dipped 0.62% to $5,197.20 as investors shifted positions.Bitcoin eased 0.40% to $69,645.79. USD/CAD slipped 0.11% to 1.36, while EUR/CAD rose 0.71% to 1.58, driven by euro resilience. Government bond yields were mixed, with the 10-year up 0.41% to 3.40% on inflation bets and the 2-year down 0.06% to 2.25% amid short-end caution.No major data releases occurred, but sentiment was shaped by Iran war reports disrupting supply chains, including aluminum trade shifts affecting miners.
Tomorrow features the Canadian Trade Balance at 4:30 ET, with consensus for a deficit of -C$900 million, improving from -C$1.31 billion prior, which could indicate export strength despite volatility. Friday's key labor data includes the Headline Unemployment Rate expected at 6.6% from 6.5%, Employment Change at 10,000 after -24,800, and details on Full-Time Employment Change (prior 44,900), Part-Time Employment Change (prior -69,700), and Labor Force Participation (prior 65%). These metrics may reveal labor trends and influence Bank of Canada expectations.No events today, leaving markets to monitor war developments.
The Iran war is heightening Canadian inflation risks, with Toronto gas prices approaching $1.60 per liter, adding to household pressures. Energy volatility could support exports but weigh on consumers and manufacturing. Supply chain issues, like Japanese firms seeking alternative aluminum sources, may impact Canadian commodities.Fiscal responses could emerge if conflict prolongs, aiming to secure trade stability.
The Iran war is jolting global markets, elevating energy prices and risking food shortages that could raise Canadian import costs and inflation. Strait of Hormuz disruptions have caused oil volatility, affecting Canada's exports. European bonds recovered on easing energy prices, though ECB's Madis Muller highlighted increased rate-hike chances, potentially echoing in Canada.UK consumer confidence hit a four-month low from the conflict, suggesting similar Canadian sentiment risks. Pre-war Egyptian inflation acceleration points to broader trade pressures on CAD pairs. Japanese auto suppliers turning to Rusal amid aluminum shortages underscore rerouting that could challenge Canadian exports.Central banks face tougher inflation battles, with rising bets for hikes globally, including in Canada.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% in the latest meeting, adopting a data-dependent stance amid inflation at 2.32% YoY. Officials have stressed vigilance on wage dynamics and external risks like the Iran war. Quantitative tightening persists, shrinking the balance sheet to normalize policy and contributing to yield movements.The Monetary Policy Report noted balanced risks but flagged upside inflation from commodities, implying a neutral-to-hawkish tilt. This positioning suggests potential delays in rate cuts if energy-driven inflation endures, with markets adjusting easing odds and supporting CAD on firmer signals.