| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,119.80 | -0.45% |
| USD/CAD | 1.36 | +0.04% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.57 | -0.41% |
| WTI Crude | 91.46 | +4.83% |
| Natural Gas | 3.18 | -0.93% |
| Gold | 5,187.40 | +0.39% |
| Brent Crude | 93.28 | +1.41% |
| Bitcoin | 70,506.86 | +0.43% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.06% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.40% | +0.41% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -1,310m | -900m | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-03-13) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.50 | 6.60 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | -24,800 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 44,900 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | -69,700 | - | 04:30 |
Canadian markets experienced mixed movements yesterday with no major data releases, as global tensions from the Iran war dominated sentiment. The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 33,119.80, down 0.45%, pressured by sell-offs in mining and energy sectors despite oil gains. USD/CAD edged up 0.04% to 1.36, while EUR/CAD fell 0.41% to 1.57, reflecting a stronger USD amid risk aversion.WTI crude surged 4.83% to $91.46, and Brent rose 1.41% to $93.28, fueled by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and fears of prolonged conflict. Natural gas dipped 0.93% to $3.18, offsetting some energy sector enthusiasm, while gold climbed 0.39% to $5,187.40 as a safe haven. Canada 10Y government yield increased 0.41% to 3.40%, signaling inflation worries, whereas the 2Y yield eased 0.06% to 2.25%.Overall, CAD crosses weakened slightly against majors, with Bitcoin up 0.43% to $70,506.86 providing minor diversification relief.
Today's key release is the Canadian trade balance at 04:30 ET, with consensus expecting a deficit of -900 million, improving from the previous -1.31 billion. Markets will watch for export strength in energy amid high oil prices, potentially supporting CAD if the print beats estimates. Tomorrow brings high-impact employment data at 04:30 ET, including headline unemployment rate forecasted at 6.6% from 6.5%, and employment change expected at +10,000 following -24,800.Full-time and part-time employment changes, along with labor force participation at 65%, will provide insights into labor market resilience. These figures could influence BoC rate cut expectations if they signal softening demand. No major events are scheduled beyond these, keeping focus on global oil dynamics.
Broader Canadian economic themes center on energy sector volatility, with the Iran war pushing oil prices higher and benefiting exporters like Alberta while raising inflation risks. Recent CPI data at 2.32% YoY as of March 2025 underscores disinflation progress, but surging crude could reverse this trend, complicating monetary policy. Domestic initiatives, such as advancements in autonomous navigation for Arctic defense and nuclear applications, highlight innovation in resource-heavy industries amid geopolitical uncertainties.
The escalating war with Iran is delivering a shock to the global economy, closing the Strait of Hormuz and spiking oil prices, which directly impacts Canada's energy exports and import costs. This conflict raises inflation concerns for central banks, with seven including the Fed facing rate decisions next week amid war-driven oil surges. European bond markets rebounded slightly as energy prices eased temporarily, but Canadian stocks sank most since April's tariff chaos due to miner sell-offs.Germany's economy may weather a short Iran war with minor setbacks, per recent institute analysis, yet prolonged conflict could exacerbate global supply chain disruptions affecting Canadian trade. U.S. gasoline prices jumped to $3.48/gallon, complicating inflation fights and potentially weakening CAD through USD strength.Food shortages in poorer nations from disrupted shipping add to humanitarian and economic pressures, indirectly influencing Canadian commodity markets. Bitcoin and gold saw safe-haven inflows, providing some hedge against equity volatility. Overall, these dynamics heighten risks for Canada's export-dependent economy, with potential for further TSX declines if tensions persist.
The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% in its latest decision as of January 2026, emphasizing data-dependent forward guidance amid cooling inflation. Recent communications from Deputy Governors highlight progress on disinflation, with CPI at 2.32% YoY supporting a neutral stance, though energy shocks from the Iran war could prompt vigilance on upside risks. The Governing Council voted to hold rates, focusing on quantitative tightening to normalize the balance sheet without specifying aggressive timelines.The Monetary Policy Report underscores balanced risks, with no rush to cut given resilient growth, but markets price in potential easing by mid-2026 if labor data softens. This guidance implies CAD stability unless global volatility spikes yields. BoC statements stress monitoring geopolitical events, signaling readiness to adjust if inflation deviates from the 2% target.Overall, these elements suggest a cautious approach, bolstering bond market confidence in gradual policy normalization.