| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 31,317.41 | -1.69% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | -0.09% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.59 | -0.16% |
| WTI Crude | 98.23 | +2.17% |
| Natural Gas | 3.10 | -2.24% |
| Gold | 4,574.90 | -0.56% |
| Brent Crude | 106.41 | -2.06% |
| Bitcoin | 70,276.18 | -0.35% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | +0.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.29% | -3.35% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.40 | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0 | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | -0.40 | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | 1.50 | - | 0.90 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canadian economic data on March 20 revealed mixed signals, with the New Housing Price Index rising 0.3% month-over-month, beating consensus expectations of -0.3% and reversing the previous -0.4% decline. Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final came in at 1.1%, below the 1.5% consensus but improving from the prior -0.4%. Retail Sales Excluding Autos advanced 0.8%, missing the 1.2% forecast after a flat previous reading, while the Preliminary Retail Sales printed at 0.9%.These figures suggest resilient but tempered consumer activity ahead of potential oil-driven inflation pressures. The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.69% to 31,317.41, pressured by energy sector weakness and broader market jitters from the Iran conflict. USD/CAD edged down 0.09% to 1.37, reflecting slight CAD strength despite oil fluctuations, with WTI Crude up 2.17% to 98.23 and Brent down 2.06% to 106.41.Natural Gas fell 2.24% to 3.10, Gold declined 0.56% to 4,574.90, and Bitcoin dropped 0.35% to 70,276.18. EUR/CAD decreased 0.16% to 1.59. Canada 10Y Government Yield dropped 3.35% to 3.29%, while the 2Y yield held steady at 2.25%, indicating some flight to safety amid equity declines.
March 21 presents a quiet calendar with no major Canadian data releases or events scheduled, allowing markets to digest yesterday's retail and housing figures. Attention may shift to global developments, including any updates on the Iran war's impact on oil supplies. Traders will monitor CAD crosses and energy commodities for volatility spillover.Tomorrow, March 22, also lacks key releases, potentially keeping focus on broader macro themes like inflation risks. Investors should watch for any unscheduled Bank of Canada commentary or government statements on economic policy. Overall, the light schedule could amplify reactions to international news.
Canada's GDP per capita crisis persists, with experts highlighting structural challenges in productivity and investment that could exacerbate amid global oil shocks. Expanding LNG exports face hurdles, as projections suggest Canada may only achieve half of Ottawa's 100 million tonnes per year target by 2040, limiting energy sector growth. (cont...)
Consumer spending showed gains in retail data but risks diversion to essentials due to rising fuel costs from the Iran conflict. Taxpayers have taken the Bank of Canada to court over unspecified issues, adding to scrutiny on monetary policy. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce shares have surged 65% over the past year, prompting questions on valuation timing.
The ongoing war in Iran continues to roil global energy markets, pushing WTI Crude higher and fueling inflation fears that affect Canadian exports and import costs. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, projecting only one cut this year amid mixed signals and war uncertainties, which could influence BoC policy alignment. European and Japanese central banks also maintained rates, assessing fallout from elevated oil prices.Money markets have raised bets on Bank of Canada hikes, with three increases anticipated starting in July, reflecting spillover from U.S. Treasury movements and inflation concerns. The Bank of England is forecasted to hike twice, adding to global tightening pressures that strengthen the USD and pressure CAD.Oil prices showed mixed moves despite efforts to secure supplies, with U.S. stocks falling on disruption worries. These dynamics heighten risks for Canada's trade-dependent economy, particularly in energy and autos.The Canadian Dollar outperformed peers despite oil price cooldowns, as noted in FX analyses.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25%, warning that a prolonged war in Iran could amplify economic impacts through higher energy prices and inflation. Recent communications emphasize monitoring persistent wage pressures and inflation risks, with CPI year-over-year at 2.32% aligning near the 2% target but vulnerable to oil shocks. Money markets have increased 2026 rate hike bets by 75 basis points, signaling expectations of tighter policy to combat potential inflationary resurgence.The committee reiterated a data-dependent approach in its latest statements, cautioning against complacency on inflation amid global uncertainties. Forward guidance suggests readiness for hikes if core pressures build, influencing bond yields and CAD valuation. These elements point to markets pricing in three hikes this year starting July, bolstering the loonie against peers despite oil volatility.Overall, BoC's stance supports cautious optimism for growth but underscores vigilance on external shocks.