Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds Amid Trade Uncertainty
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,108.20 | +0.46% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | -0.01% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.05% |
| WTI Crude | 110.16 | -1.24% |
| Natural Gas | 2.83 | +1.07% |
| Gold | 4,714.90 | +1.36% |
| Brent Crude | 108.49 | -0.50% |
| Bitcoin | 69,667.98 | +0.99% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | +0.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.29% | -3.35% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate (%): 6.5 (2026-01-01) | Range: 4.8–8.3 | Trend(5pt): 8.3,4.8,5.5,7,6.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-04-07) | |||
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 56.60 | 57.20 | 10:00 |
| Friday (2026-04-10) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.70 | 6.80 | 08:30 |
| Employment Change | -83,900 | 12,600 | 08:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -108,400 | - | 08:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 24,500 | - | 08:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 64.90 | - | 08:30 |
- Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.25%, citing trade uncertainty and gradual rate hike plans.
- Canadian dollar weakens slightly versus USD despite supportive oil prices, with USD/CAD at 1.39.
- TSX rises modestly on bank strength, while yields dip on softer growth outlook.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets showed resilience yesterday with the S&P/TSX Composite climbing 0.46% to 33,108.20, driven by gains in financials amid Royal Bank of Canada stock stability. USD/CAD edged down 0.01% to 1.39, reflecting minor CAD weakness offset by bullish oil dynamics, while EUR/CAD rose 0.05% to 1.61. WTI Crude fell 1.24% to 110.16, pressured by global supply concerns, but Natural Gas gained 1.07% to 2.83 on demand expectations.
Gold surged 1.36% to 4,714.90 as a safe-haven asset, and Bitcoin advanced 0.99% to 69,667.98 tracking risk appetite. Canada 10Y Govt Yield dropped 3.35% to 3.29%, signaling easing bets, while the 2Y yield held steady at 2.25%. No major data releases occurred, but news of RBC navigating economic headwinds supported bank shares.
Overall, energy volatility and currency stability dominated amid absent economic prints.
The Day Ahead
Tomorrow features the Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted at 10:00 ET, with consensus at 57.2 versus previous 56.6, potentially influencing CAD if it signals manufacturing strength. Friday brings key labor data at 08:30 ET, including Headline Unemployment Rate expected at 6.8% from 6.7%, alongside Employment Change forecast at 12,600 from -83,900. Full-Time and Part-Time Employment Changes lack consensus but follow prior figures of -108,400 and 24,500, respectively, while Labor Force Participation is eyed after 64.9%.
These releases could sway BoC easing expectations, with strong jobs data possibly pressuring yields higher. Markets will watch for any surprises in PMI that might reflect trade impacts. No other immediate events, but focus remains on energy prices amid global tensions.
Other Economic Notes
Broader Canadian themes highlight persistent inflation at 2.32% YoY as of March 2025, complicating BoC's path amid trade uncertainties. Housing and energy sectors face headwinds from high rates, with RBC noting economic navigation challenges. Corporate developments, like Methanex's downgrade by RBC to hold, underscore commodity exposure risks.
