Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMI Misses, Oil Crashes
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,237.50 | +0.17% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | -0.34% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | +1.00% |
| WTI Crude | 93.33 | -17.37% |
| Natural Gas | 2.73 | -4.77% |
| Gold | 4,819.10 | +3.48% |
| Brent Crude | 92.97 | -14.92% |
| Bitcoin | 71,526.00 | -0.58% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | +0.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.29% | -3.35% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 56.60 | 55.90 | 49.70 |
BoC Short-Term Rate | Type: macro_line | Short-Term Rate (%): 2.25 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(5pt): 0.1809,2.037,4.992,3.765,2.25
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-04-10) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.70 | 6.80 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | -83,900 | 15,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -108,400 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 64.90 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 24,500 | - | 04:30 |
- Ivey PMI fell sharply to 49.7 vs. consensus 55.9, signaling business contraction.
- Oil prices plunged with WTI -17.37% and Brent -14.92%, weighing on CAD sentiment.
- TSX up 0.17% on bank strength; 10Y yield down 3.35% amid easing expectations.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada's Ivey PMI seasonally adjusted dropped to 49.7, missing consensus of 55.9 and prior 56.6, pointing to contracting business activity and heightened economic slowdown risks. The S&P/TSX Composite gained 0.17% to 33,237.50, supported by financial sector advances, including Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank of Canada stocks that outperformed amid positive market sentiment. USD/CAD fell 0.34% to 1.39, reflecting modest loonie appreciation, while EUR/CAD climbed 1.00% to 1.62 on euro strength.
WTI Crude tumbled 17.37% to 93.33 and Brent Crude declined 14.92% to 92.97, driven by supply glut concerns and easing geopolitical risks after the U.S.-Iran cease-fire. Natural Gas decreased 4.77% to 2.73 on soft demand forecasts, while Gold rose 3.48% to 4,819.10 as a safe-haven asset. Canada 10Y Government Yield dropped 3.35% to 3.29%, indicating bets on policy easing, with the 2Y yield unchanged at 2.25%.
Bitcoin edged down 0.58% to 71,526.00 amid general market volatility.
The Day Ahead
No major Canadian events today or tomorrow, providing a quiet period for markets to absorb global developments. Attention shifts to Friday's labor data at 4:30 ET, including headline unemployment rate expected at 6.8% (prior 6.7%), employment change at 15,000 (prior -83,900), full-time change (prior -108,400), part-time change (prior 24,500), and labor force participation (prior 64.9%). Weak prints could bolster Bank of Canada rate cut expectations, influencing CAD pairs and TSX performance.
Other Economic Notes
Canada's CPI eased to 2.32% YoY as of March 2025, aided by declining gasoline prices, aligning with the Bank of Canada's stability goals. The oil sector's vulnerability is evident as falling crude prices undermine the loonie's traditional energy support, per recent analysis. Banking updates include Laurentian Bank's repositioning via asset sales and a proposed Fairstone deal, alongside Royal Bank of Canada's Avion Rewards expansion and fundamentally solid outlook despite valuation caution.
