Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Ivey PMI Contracts, Oil Surges
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,620.60 | +1.15% |
| USD/CAD | 1.38 | -0.04% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | -0.05% |
| WTI Crude | 99.46 | +5.35% |
| Natural Gas | 2.73 | +0.11% |
| Gold | 4,770.90 | +0.45% |
| Brent Crude | 98.58 | +4.04% |
| Bitcoin | 71,092.66 | -0.04% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | +0.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.29% | -3.35% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 56.60 | 55.90 | 49.70 |
Canada Short-Term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short Rate (%): 2.25 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(5pt): 0.1809,2.037,4.992,3.765,2.25
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-04-10) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.70 | 6.80 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | -83,900 | 15,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -108,400 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 64.90 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 24,500 | - | 04:30 |
- Ivey PMI plunged to 49.7 in March, signaling manufacturing contraction amid softening demand.
- Crude prices surged over 5% amid Middle East tensions, boosting energy-linked assets.
- TSX climbed 1.15% while 10Y yields fell 3.35% to 3.29%, reflecting risk-on sentiment.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada's Ivey PMI seasonally adjusted dropped sharply to 49.7 in March, missing consensus of 55.9 and down from 56.6 prior, indicating the first contraction since early 2025 and raising concerns over economic slowdown. This weak print pressured sentiment in manufacturing-exposed sectors, though broader markets shrugged it off amid global relief. The S&P/TSX Composite advanced 1.15% to 33,620.60, driven by gains in energy stocks as WTI Crude jumped 5.35% to 99.46 and Brent rose 4.04% to 98.58 on Middle East developments offsetting demand fears.
USD/CAD edged down 0.04% to 1.38, while EUR/CAD slipped 0.05% to 1.62, with the loonie benefiting from higher oil despite safe-haven USD bids. Canada 10Y government yields declined 3.35% to 3.29%, flattening the curve as investors priced in potential BoC caution, while the 2Y yield held steady at 2.25%. Gold rose 0.45% to 4,770.90, and natural gas ticked up 0.11% to 2.73, but Bitcoin dipped 0.04% to 71,092.66 amid mixed crypto flows.
Overall, Canadian equities outperformed amid commodity strength, though PMI data hinted at mounting headwinds for Q2 growth.
The Day Ahead
Tomorrow brings key labor market data at 8:30 ET, with headline unemployment rate expected to rise to 6.8% from 6.7% prior, signaling ongoing softening in employment amid high rates. Employment change is forecasted at +15,000, a rebound from -83,900 prior, though full-time jobs previously fell -108,400, potentially pressuring wage growth if trends persist. Part-time employment rose +24,500 last time, but consensus lacks specifics, while labor force participation at 64.9% prior could edge lower if discouraged workers exit.
These figures will heavily influence BoC rate cut expectations, especially with CPI at 2.32% YoY as of March 2025. No other major Canadian events are scheduled, but U.S. data may spill over via CAD and yields.
Other Economic Notes
Broader themes highlight electrification potential, with studies showing Canadian households could save hundreds monthly by switching to EVs amid volatile fuel costs, supporting the auto sector's transition despite tariff threats. (cont...)
