Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Sees Longer Detour, CAD Resilient
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,879.20 | +0.54% |
| USD/CAD | 1.38 | -0.88% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | +0.22% |
| WTI Crude | 97.67 | -1.42% |
| Natural Gas | 2.60 | -0.95% |
| Gold | 4,800.40 | +1.22% |
| Brent Crude | 99.26 | -0.10% |
| Bitcoin | 74,397.58 | -0.12% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | +0.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.29% | -3.35% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
BoC Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate (%): 2.25 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(5pt): 0.1809,2.037,4.992,3.765,2.25
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Canada added 14,000 jobs in March, holding unemployment at 6.7%, signaling steady labor market amid economic slowdown.
- Bank of Canada anticipates longer economic detour with growth rebound later, while oil price shocks unlikely to reignite inflation.
- CAD pared losses versus USD on rallying oil, despite hawkish Fed bets.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets showed resilience with the S&P/TSX Composite climbing 0.54% to 33,879.20, driven by energy sector gains amid volatile oil prices. USD/CAD fell 0.88% to 1.38 as higher oil countered U.S. dollar strength, while EUR/CAD edged up 0.22% to 1.62.
WTI Crude dropped 1.42% to 97.67, and Brent Crude slipped 0.10% to 99.26, reflecting inventory pressures despite geopolitical tensions. Natural Gas declined 0.95% to 2.60, but Gold surged 1.22% to 4,800.40 on safe-haven demand. Canada 10Y Government Yield fell 3.35% to 3.29%, signaling easing bets, while the 2Y Yield held steady at 2.25%.
Bitcoin dipped 0.12% to 74,397.58, with no major Canadian data releases contributing to subdued volatility. Overall, markets digested recent March jobs data adding 14,000 positions, keeping unemployment at 6.7%.
The Day Ahead
No major Canadian economic releases are scheduled for today, allowing markets to focus on global cues like U.S. Treasury comments on Fed policy. Attention turns to potential Bank of Canada insights from ongoing discussions on AI cyber risks with lenders.
Broader sentiment may hinge on oil dynamics, with WTI and Brent levels influencing energy-heavy TSX sectors. Traders eye CAD crosses for reactions to any U.S. data spillover.
Tomorrow brings no events, extending the quiet calendar. Expect positioning ahead of future BoC communications.
Other Economic Notes
Broader themes highlight Canada's fiscal outlook amid Mark Carney's political prospects, with TD Securities analysis pointing to infrastructure investments boosting skilled trades. Housing and infrastructure plans aim to break stigma around trades jobs, supporting youth employment in a softening economy. Oil price shocks are not expected to fuel inflation, per RBC, preserving the Bank of Canada's rate path stability.
Opinion pieces urge Canada to counter tariffs with tariffs, reflecting trade tensions.
