Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Recession Fears Rise, Oil Surges
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,346.30 | +0.86% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | -0.12% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.19% |
| WTI Crude | 87.68 | +4.57% |
| Natural Gas | 2.73 | +2.21% |
| Gold | 4,808.30 | -1.01% |
| Brent Crude | 95.05 | +5.17% |
| Bitcoin | 75,281.25 | +1.93% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Short-term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 2.26 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1809,2.037,4.992,3.765,2.25,2.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.80 | - | 04:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.30 | - | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 1.10 | 04:30 |
| BoC Business Outlook Survey | - | - | 06:30 |
| BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations | - | - | 06:30 |
- Former BoC governor warns of 30% recession risk amid trade uncertainty and slowdown.
- Oil prices jump on geopolitical tensions, lifting TSX and strengthening CAD.
- Key CPI data awaited for signs of inflation from Iran's conflict.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets closed higher on Friday, with the S&P/TSX Composite up 0.86% to 34,346.30, led by energy gains from rising crude prices. WTI Crude rose 4.57% to 87.68, and Brent Crude climbed 5.17% to 95.05, driven by Middle East tensions linked to Iran's actions. Natural Gas increased 2.21% to 2.73 on steady demand.
USD/CAD slipped 0.12% to 1.37, and EUR/CAD dropped 0.19% to 1.61, as the Canadian dollar benefited from oil strength. Bond yields rose, with the 2-year at 2.26% (up 0.44%) and the 10-year at 3.44% (up 4.61%), reflecting inflation worries. Gold fell 1.01% to 4,808.30, while Bitcoin gained 1.93% to 75,281.25.
No significant data releases happened, but a former BoC governor's 30% recession warning pressured sentiment.
The Day Ahead
Today's schedule includes critical inflation figures at 4:30 ET, with YoY CPI last at 1.8% and MoM consensus at 1.1%, possibly reflecting energy price effects from Iran's war. Core YoY inflation, previously 2.3%, will provide details on core pressures. At 6:30 ET, the BoC Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations will offer views on business confidence and household inflation outlooks amid uncertainty.
These could affect CAD pairs and yields, particularly if inflation appears sticky. Energy markets may see swings due to global risks. No events tomorrow.
Other Economic Notes
Canada's economy faces challenges from U.S. trade policies, with ex-officials like Carney pushing for less U.S. reliance amid tariff risks.
Housing shows some stability but affordability strains persist, impacting spending. Energy firms like Suncor report strong output from efficiencies, though global demand volatility poses issues. Broader themes include AI's financial risks, as noted by BoC Governor Macklem, and calls for a digital dollar to reduce U.S.
payment dominance.
