Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Misses Estimates, TSX Drops
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,808.30 | -1.61% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | +0.07% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.06% |
| WTI Crude | 90.34 | -1.94% |
| Natural Gas | 2.73 | +1.15% |
| Gold | 4,777.40 | +1.68% |
| Brent Crude | 94.27 | -4.27% |
| Bitcoin | 78,234.01 | +2.46% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.30 | - | 2.50 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 1 | 0.90 |
| BoC Business Outlook Survey | - | - | "" |
| BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations | - | - | "" |
Canada Short-Term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short Rate %: 2.26 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1809,2.037,4.992,3.765,2.25,2.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-04-24) | |||
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.80 | 0.80 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 1.10 | 0.90 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | 0.90 | - | 04:30 |
- Canadian inflation rose to 2.4% YoY in March, below 2.5% consensus but above prior 1.8%, with core up to 2.5%.
- TSX dropped 1.61% amid energy sector declines, as WTI and Brent crude fell sharply.
- BoC surveys indicated mixed outlooks, with UBS noting "less rosy" sentiments post-conflict.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian inflation data for March showed a year-over-year rate of 2.4%, missing the 2.5% consensus but rising from the previous 1.8%, while core inflation increased to 2.5% from 2.3%. Month-over-month inflation was 0.9%, below the expected 1% but above the prior 0.5%, suggesting accelerating but below-forecast price growth that aligns with the BoC's cautious approach. The BoC Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations were released, showing improving but "less rosy" post-conflict sentiments per UBS analysis, with businesses citing ongoing uncertainty.
Markets reacted with risk-off moves, pushing the S&P/TSX down 1.61% to 33,808.30, weighed by energy as WTI crude fell 1.94% to 90.34 and Brent dropped 4.27% to 94.27. USD/CAD rose 0.07% to 1.37 on CAD softness, while Canada 10Y yields jumped 4.61% to 3.44% and 2Y yields increased 0.44% to 2.26% amid global repricing. Gold climbed 1.68% to 4,777.40 as a safe haven, natural gas rose 1.15% to 2.73, and Bitcoin gained 2.46% to 78,234.01.
The data supports a narrative of gradual economic cooling without prompting immediate BoC action.
The Day Ahead
Today's highlight is the New Housing Price Index for March at 4:30 ET, with consensus for a 0.2% month-over-month rise from the prior 0.3%, which could indicate housing market trends under elevated rates. No events are set for tomorrow, April 23, allowing focus on global developments. On Friday, April 24, retail sales releases at 4:30 ET include month-over-month final at consensus 0.9% (prior 1.1%), excluding autos at 0.8% (prior 0.8%), and preliminary figures.
These may drive CAD movements and shape views on consumer strength and BoC policy.
Other Economic Notes
Former BoC governor assessed one-in-three recession odds for Canada, stressing fiscal caution amid U.S. tariff risks. Big bank economists analyzed the latest CPI, noting the miss eases rate pressure but core uptick calls for vigilance.
Mark Carney urged cutting U.S. reliance as tariffs impact the economy, while another ex-governor advised balancing cuts with investments. Housing data reflects subdued starts and prices due to high rates and inventory, potentially weighing on growth.
