Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Misses, Housing Prices Dip
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,955.10 | +0.43% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | +0.12% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | -0.44% |
| WTI Crude | 94.06 | +1.18% |
| Natural Gas | 2.88 | +5.62% |
| Gold | 4,714.70 | -0.38% |
| Brent Crude | 97.36 | -4.46% |
| Bitcoin | 77,535.13 | -0.85% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.30 | - | 2.50 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 1 | 0.90 |
| BoC Business Outlook Survey | - | - | "" |
| BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations | - | - | "" |
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | -0.20 |
Canada Policy Rate vs CPI | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 2.26 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1809,2.037,4.992,3.765,2.25,2.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-04-24) | |||
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.80 | 0.80 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 1.10 | 0.90 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | 0.90 | - | 04:30 |
- Canadian March inflation hit 2.4% YoY, below 2.5% consensus, with core at 2.5%; new housing prices fell 0.2% MoM unexpectedly.
- TSX rose 0.43% to 33,955.10 amid energy gains, USD/CAD up 0.12% to 1.37, 10Y yields up 4.61% to 3.44%.
- BoC surveys released without surprises, as markets eye steady policy despite oil volatility.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian March inflation data showed headline YoY at 2.4%, missing the 2.5% consensus but up from 1.8% prior, while core inflation rose to 2.5% from 2.3%. Month-over-month inflation was 0.9%, below the 1.0% expected and down from 0.5% prior. The New Housing Price Index declined 0.2% MoM, against a 0.2% consensus gain and 0.3% previous, indicating housing sector cooling.
BoC's Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations were released without specific quantified actuals, noting ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation expectations. Markets responded with the S&P/TSX up 0.43% to 33,955.10, supported by resource sectors as WTI Crude rose 1.18% to 94.06, despite Brent Crude falling 4.46% to 97.36. Natural Gas surged 5.62% to 2.88.
USD/CAD increased 0.12% to 1.37, EUR/CAD dropped 0.44% to 1.60. Gold eased 0.38% to 4,714.70, Bitcoin fell 0.85% to 77,535.13. Canada 2Y yield rose 0.44% to 2.26%, and 10Y yield climbed 4.61% to 3.44%, reflecting expectations of sustained rates.
The Day Ahead
No major Canadian events today. Tomorrow at 04:30 ET, retail sales data includes MoM Final expected at 0.9% vs. 1.1% prior, Excluding Autos MoM at 0.8% matching previous, and Preliminary MoM without consensus following 0.9% prior.
These could shape BoC views on consumer spending ahead of the next rate decision, amid global oil and trade dynamics.
Other Economic Notes
Trade tensions with the U.S. persist, as Canada pushes for reciprocity amid U.S. demands for dairy access and revisiting sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos.
Housing affordability challenges continue, worsened by high rates and the recent housing price drop. New parliamentary budget officer Annette Ryan will oversee fiscal matters, promoting restraint. TC Energy's pipeline financing advances LNG exports, while CMHC notes declining housing starts due to rates.
