Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Hold Eyed Amid Oil Volatility
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,818.20 | -0.25% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | -0.04% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | +0.03% |
| WTI Crude | 100.95 | +4.75% |
| Natural Gas | 2.71 | +6.27% |
| Gold | 4,612.50 | -1.35% |
| Brent Crude | 104.88 | -3.10% |
| Bitcoin | 76,218.47 | -1.48% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
BoC Short-Term Policy Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-Term Rate %: 2.26 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1809,2.037,4.992,3.765,2.25,2.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-04-29) | |||
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 05:45 |
| BoC Monetary Policy Report | - | - | 05:45 |
| BoC Press Conference | - | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-04-30) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
- BoC rate decision anticipated to hold at 2.26%, matching verified policy rate despite energy-driven inflation concerns.
- Oil prices mixed with WTI up 4.75%, supporting CAD strength but lifting yields.
- TSX down 0.25% on commodity shifts; verified CPI at 2.32% YoY amid reports of rising pressures.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets ended mixed, with the S&P/TSX declining 0.25% to 33,818.20, pressured by energy sector swings despite strong commodity performances. USD/CAD slipped 0.04% to 1.37, buoyed by CAD gains from elevated oil prices, while EUR/CAD increased 0.03% to 1.60 due to international forex movements. WTI Crude surged 4.75% to 100.95, fueled by stalled US-Iran talks, unlike Brent Crude's 3.10% fall to 104.88.
Natural Gas climbed 6.27% to 2.71 amid supply worries, but Gold dropped 1.35% to 4,612.50 as haven appeal faded. Canada 10Y Govt Yield rose 4.61% to 3.44%, indicating inflation fears, with the 2Y Yield up 0.44% to 2.26%. No key data releases yesterday, though news highlighted inflation rising to 2.4%, contrasting verified CPI at 2.32% YoY.
Bitcoin fell 1.48% to 76,218.47, aligning with cautious equity sentiment.
The Day Ahead
Tomorrow's BoC Interest Rate Decision at 05:45 ET is projected to maintain the rate at 2.26%, aligning with verified levels amid geopolitical inflation risks. The BoC Monetary Policy Report at the same time will offer revised forecasts, possibly shaping guidance on balance sheet policy. A BoC Press Conference at 06:30 ET follows, where Governor Macklem could discuss oil impacts and future moves.
Thursday's GDP Month-over-Month at 04:30 ET has consensus at 0.2% after 0.1% prior, with a preliminary figure that might influence CAD pairs. These could spark movements in TSX, bonds, and resources. Watch for signals on potential rate adjustments given recent energy gains.
Other Economic Notes
Key trends focus on commodity-fueled inflation, with verified CPI at 2.32% YoY reflecting ongoing effects from oil and gas increases. Fiscal projections indicate better deficits and revenues, aided by resource booms, which may lower borrowing needs. Trade frictions continue, with US-Iran tensions threatening CAD through energy exports.
Housing data and international relations add layers, as stalled peace talks boost oil but risk broader economic spillovers.
