Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Set to Hold Amid Oil Volatility
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,584.30 | -0.69% |
| USD/CAD | 1.36 | -0.40% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | +0.28% |
| WTI Crude | 103.21 | +3.28% |
| Natural Gas | 2.65 | +3.60% |
| Gold | 4,577.10 | -0.31% |
| Brent Crude | 107.44 | -3.43% |
| Bitcoin | 77,600.32 | +1.64% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
BoC Policy Rate vs Inflation | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 2.26 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1809,2.037,4.992,3.765,2.25,2.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 05:45 |
| BoC Monetary Policy Report | - | - | 05:45 |
| BoC Press Conference | - | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-04-30) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
- Bank of Canada expected to keep policy rate at 2.26% despite oil shocks and inflation at 2.32% YoY.
- Markets mixed: TSX down 0.69%, CAD firms vs USD on energy gains.
- GDP data tomorrow and global tensions key for outlook.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets closed mixed on April 28 with no major data releases, as the S&P/TSX fell 0.69% to 33,584.30 amid broader equity weakness, pressured by declining Brent crude prices down 3.43% to 107.44. USD/CAD dipped 0.40% to 1.36, reflecting CAD resilience supported by surging WTI crude up 3.28% to 103.21 and natural gas rising 3.60% to 2.65. EUR/CAD climbed 0.28% to 1.60, while gold edged down 0.31% to 4,577.10, offsetting some safe-haven demand.
Government bond yields rose, with the 2-year up 0.44% to 2.26% and 10-year surging 4.61% to 3.44%, signaling inflation concerns. Bitcoin gained 1.64% to 77,600.32, buoyed by risk appetite. Overall, energy commodities drove CAD stability, but equities lagged on global uncertainty.
The Day Ahead
Today's focus is on the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision at 05:45 ET, with consensus expecting no change from 2.26%, followed by the Monetary Policy Report release. A press conference at 06:30 ET will provide insights into inflation and growth assessments amid oil shocks. Tomorrow brings GDP month-over-month at 04:30 ET, with consensus at 0.2% versus previous 0.1%, alongside preliminary figures.
These releases could shift market pricing for future BoC moves. Global events, including US-Iran tensions, may amplify volatility in CAD and energy prices.
Other Economic Notes
Canada's fiscal update projects an improved deficit and revenue outlook, supported by higher oil revenues amid global supply disruptions. Housing and corporate sectors show resilience, with energy firms like Shell shifting focus to natural gas amid oilsands changes. Broader themes include moderating economic recovery, with inflation at 2.32% YoY pressuring policy patience.
Global Macro News
Global oil prices showed volatility due to US-Iran war tensions, with WTI up 3.28% and Brent down 3.43% but overall elevated, boosting Canada's energy exports while raising import costs. Emerging market currencies like the Indian rupee weakened under oil pressure and dollar strength, indirectly supporting CAD as a commodity-linked currency. US Fed divergence from other central banks adds uncertainty, potentially strengthening USD/CAD if rate paths differ.
(cont...)
