Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds Steady, GDP Meets Expectations
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,964.30 | +1.94% |
| USD/CAD | 1.36 | -0.77% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.59 | -0.20% |
| WTI Crude | 104.49 | -0.55% |
| Natural Gas | 2.78 | +0.40% |
| Gold | 4,581.70 | -0.72% |
| Brent Crude | 111.06 | -2.59% |
| Bitcoin | 77,361.98 | +1.39% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| BoC Monetary Policy Report | - | - | - |
| BoC Press Conference | - | - | - |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Prel | 0.20 | - | 0 |
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 3.44 (2026-03-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.425,2.859,4.062,3.162,3.288,3.44
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Bank of Canada keeps policy rate at 2.25%, citing caution amid subdued growth outlook.
- GDP MoM hits 0.2% as expected, though preliminary reading falls to 0.0%, signaling patchy momentum.
- TSX climbs 1.94% on rate decision; CAD firms with USD/CAD down 0.77%.
Yesterday's Recap
The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 2.25% as anticipated, releasing the Monetary Policy Report and holding a press conference where Governor Macklem voiced encouragement regarding efforts to diversify the economy. GDP month-over-month registered 0.2%, matching consensus and demonstrating resilience despite headwinds, while the preliminary figure declined to 0.0% from 0.2% prior, sparking questions about sustained growth. The S&P/TSX Composite advanced 1.94% to 33,964.30, buoyed by widespread gains amid the policy hold.
USD/CAD decreased 0.77% to 1.36, bolstered by CAD appreciation following the decision, while EUR/CAD slipped 0.20% to 1.59. Canada 10Y government yield increased 4.61% to 3.44%, reflecting perceptions of a hawkish tone, and 2Y yield rose 0.44% to 2.26%. WTI Crude fell 0.55% to 104.49, and Brent Crude dropped 2.59% to 111.06, influenced by global supply dynamics.
Natural Gas rose 0.40% to 2.78, while Gold declined 0.72% to 4,581.70. Bitcoin gained 1.39% to 77,361.98.
The Day Ahead
No significant Canadian economic data releases are on the calendar today, providing space for markets to process the recent BoC decision and GDP figures. Focus may turn to international developments, including U.S. labor market indicators, which could affect CAD pairs and TSX performance via cross-border influences.
Energy prices, such as WTI Crude and Natural Gas, will be watched for shifts driven by geopolitical factors impacting Canada's resource exports. Bond yields may stabilize as traders assess BoC guidance. Absent local catalysts, CAD could remain range-bound, with equities potentially consolidating recent advances.
A subdued session is expected, setting up for any external volatility.
Other Economic Notes
Canada's economy shows signs of dodging recession risks, with GDP growth supported by recovering manufacturing activity as highlighted in reports. Yet, the Bank of Canada forecasts GDP below 2% for 2026 and 2027, pointing to prolonged slow expansion amid diversification initiatives. Housing starts face pressure from elevated rates, and trade relations are strained by potential U.S.
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