Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Flags Energy Inflation Risks
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,638.90 | -0.74% |
| USD/CAD | 1.36 | +0.15% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.59 | -0.10% |
| WTI Crude | 104.23 | -2.06% |
| Natural Gas | 2.86 | -0.28% |
| Gold | 4,566.70 | +1.04% |
| Brent Crude | 112.96 | -1.29% |
| Bitcoin | 81,046.43 | +1.53% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Macklem Speech | - | - | - |
| BoC Rogers Speech | - | - | - |
Canada Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 2.26 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1879,2.483,5.002,3.469,2.25,2.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -5,740m | -2,800m | 04:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-05-06) | |||
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 49.70 | 49.90 | 06:00 |
| Friday (2026-05-08) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.70 | 6.70 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 14,100 | 20,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -1,100 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 64.90 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 15,200 | - | 04:30 |
- BoC speeches warn of potential rate hikes if energy prices fuel broader inflation.
- TSX falls 0.74% on oil weakness; USD/CAD up 0.15%.
- Bond yields climb, with 10Y up 4.61% amid policy caution.
Yesterday's Recap
Yesterday included high-impact speeches from BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers, focusing on risks of inflation spreading from high energy costs. Macklem pledged action if effects broaden, consistent with BoC's 1.2% GDP growth projection for 2026. No significant data releases, but rhetoric influenced markets: S&P/TSX ended at 33,638.90, down 0.74%, pressured by energy amid WTI crude's 2.06% decline to $104.23 and Brent's 1.29% drop to $112.96.
USD/CAD rose 0.15% to 1.36 on oil-linked CAD weakness, while EUR/CAD fell 0.10% to 1.59. Bond yields increased, with the 10Y up 4.61% to 3.44% and 2Y up 0.44% to 2.26%, as traders anticipated extended rate holds. Gold advanced 1.04% to $4,566.70 on safe-haven demand, natural gas slipped 0.28% to $2.86, and Bitcoin rose 1.53% to $81,046.43.
The Day Ahead
Today features the Trade Balance at 04:30 ET, with consensus at -CAD2.8B versus prior -CAD5.74B, which could bolster CAD if exports improve despite softer oil. Tomorrow's Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted at 06:00 ET is expected at 49.9 from 49.7, a key business activity indicator that may affect BoC easing odds. Friday brings labor releases at 04:30 ET, including Headline Unemployment Rate steady at 6.7%, Employment Change at 20K from 14.1K, plus Full-Time Employment Change, Part-Time Employment Change, and Labor Force Participation.
Surprises could alter policy expectations, especially amid USMCA talks influencing trade.
Other Economic Notes
Canada's spring budget forecasts economic growth and a declining deficit, enhancing fiscal outlook. Statistics Canada reported negative annual inflation in April, reducing BoC pressure but highlighting deflation concerns if sustained. TD Securities anticipates an extended BoC hold, tied to jobs data and USMCA developments.
Currency Exchange International completed the dissolution of Exchange Bank of Canada, announcing a full exit from the country.
Global Macro News
Canadian Dollar stayed subdued due to lower oil prices, per FXStreet analysis. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem supported Fed independence ahead of Powell's departure. Multiple reports, including from WSJ and marketscreener.com, noted Macklem's commitment to act if high energy prices spread inflation.
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