Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Jobs Miss, Unemployment Climbs
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,031.51 | +0.52% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | +0.35% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.59% |
| WTI Crude | 95.98 | +1.23% |
| Natural Gas | 2.79 | +0.87% |
| Gold | 4,723.80 | +0.51% |
| Brent Crude | 101.47 | +1.41% |
| Bitcoin | 79,969.67 | -0.05% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Macklem Speech | - | - | - |
| BoC Rogers Speech | - | - | - |
| Trade Balance | -5,110m | -2,900m | 1,780m |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 49.70 | 49.90 | 57.70 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.70 | 6.70 | 6.90 |
| Employment Change | 14,100 | 20,000 | -17,700 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -1,100 | - | -46,700 |
| Labor Force Participation | 64.90 | - | 65 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 15,200 | - | - |
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 3.44 (2026-03-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.425,2.859,4.062,3.162,3.288,3.44 | Policy Rate (%): 2.26 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1879,2.483,5.002,3.469,2.25,2.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Canada's April jobs report disappointed with a net loss of 17,700 positions, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.9% and complicating BoC policy outlook.
- Ivey PMI surged to 57.7 in April, signaling robust business activity despite labor market weakness.
- Trade balance swung to a C$1.78 billion surplus, driven by stronger exports amid rising commodity prices.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada's April employment data released on May 8 showed a contraction of 17,700 jobs, missing consensus expectations of a 20,000 gain. The unemployment rate rose to 6.9% from 6.7%, the highest in six months, with full-time positions dropping sharply by 46,700 while part-time roles were flat. Labor force participation edged up to 65% from 64.9%, indicating resilient worker entry despite softening demand.
Earlier in the week, the Ivey PMI for April jumped to 57.7 from 49.7, exceeding forecasts and reflecting expansion in manufacturing and services. The trade balance for March flipped to a C$1.78 billion surplus from a C$5.11 billion deficit, bolstered by energy exports as WTI crude rose 1.23% to $95.98. Markets reacted with the S&P/TSX climbing 0.52% to 34,031.51 on energy gains, while USD/CAD strengthened 0.35% to 1.37 amid CAD pressure from jobs data.
Canada 10-year yields surged 4.61% to 3.44%, steepening the curve as rate cut bets eased.
The Day Ahead
No major Canadian economic releases are scheduled for May 8, providing markets a brief pause after the volatile jobs data. Attention may shift to any unscheduled Bank of Canada commentary or reactions to the employment figures. Tomorrow, May 9, also lacks key events, though global oil market developments could influence CAD and TSX energy stocks.
Traders will monitor U.S. data for spillover effects on Canadian bonds and currency crosses. Broader focus remains on upcoming CPI readings to gauge inflation trends.
Other Economic Notes
Canada's spring budget projects steady economic growth and a falling deficit, emphasizing fiscal discipline amid rising unemployment pressures. Recent GDP data highlighted manufacturing-driven expansion in February, supporting optimism for a soft landing despite labor market stumbles. Housing starts remain subdued, per CMHC reports, underscoring the need for potential rate relief to stimulate construction activity.
