Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Jobs Slump Dents CAD, TSX Gains
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,077.80 | +0.65% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | +0.02% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.39% |
| WTI Crude | 97.94 | +2.64% |
| Natural Gas | 2.83 | +2.79% |
| Gold | 4,679.90 | -0.86% |
| Brent Crude | 103.99 | +2.67% |
| Bitcoin | 81,154.52 | -1.20% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 3.44 (2026-03-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.425,2.859,4.062,3.162,3.288,3.44 | Policy Rate (%): 2.26 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1879,2.483,5.002,3.469,2.25,2.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Market Participants Survey | - | - | 10:30 |
| Friday (2026-05-15) | |||
| Housing Starts Level | 235,900 | 245,000 | 08:15 |
- Canadian jobs fell 18,000 in April, pushing unemployment to 6.9%, pressuring CAD and complicating BoC policy.
- TSX rose 0.65% to 34,077.80, driven by metals amid global oil surge from US-Iran tensions.
- BoC holds rate at 2.26%, with softer data bolstering case for steady policy amid sticky inflation.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada's April employment report, released yesterday, showed a loss of 18,000 jobs, far below expectations and marking the second consecutive monthly decline, with unemployment rising to a six-month high of 6.9%. This weak labor data complicated the Bank of Canada's outlook, reducing bets on near-term rate hikes and causing the Canadian dollar to underperform G10 peers, with USD/CAD edging up 0.02% to 1.37. Despite the jobs miss, the S&P/TSX Composite climbed 0.65% to 34,077.80, buoyed by strength in metals and energy sectors as WTI crude surged 2.64% to 97.94 amid escalating US-Iran conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz.
Government bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield jumping 4.61% to 3.44%, reflecting diminished expectations for BoC easing. EUR/CAD gained 0.39% to 1.61, while natural gas rose 2.79% to 2.83, supporting resource-heavy TSX gains. Gold dipped 0.86% to 4,679.90, and Bitcoin fell 1.20% to 81,154.52, as risk appetite favored equities over safe havens.
No major data surprises emerged beyond jobs, but headlines from WSJ and CBC highlighted labor market stumbles as a key drag on economic momentum.
The Day Ahead
Today's key release is the BoC Market Participants Survey at 10:30 ET, which will provide insights into market expectations for inflation, growth, and policy rates, potentially influencing CAD and bond yields. No other events are scheduled for today, keeping focus on this medium-impact survey amid recent labor weakness. Looking ahead to Friday, Housing Starts data at 08:15 ET is expected at 245,000, up from 235,900 previously, offering clues on residential investment resilience.
Markets will watch for any deviations that could signal housing sector strength or vulnerability to higher rates. Broader attention may shift to global oil dynamics, but Canadian releases remain the priority.
Other Economic Notes
Broader themes include persistent labor market softening, with April's job losses complicating recovery narratives and raising concerns over consumer spending amid elevated rates. <i>↓ p.2</i>
