Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
TSX Rises, Yields Climb
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,290.70 | +0.44% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | +0.09% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | -0.43% |
| WTI Crude | 102.08 | -0.10% |
| Natural Gas | 2.83 | -0.56% |
| Gold | 4,706.20 | +0.61% |
| Brent Crude | 107.97 | +0.19% |
| Bitcoin | 80,634.25 | +0.19% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.26% | +0.44% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.44% | +4.61% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Short-Term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-Term Rate %: 2.26 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1879,2.483,5.002,3.469,2.25,2.26
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-05-15) | |||
| Housing Starts Level | 235,900 | 242,500 | 08:15 |
| Tuesday (2026-05-19) | |||
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.40 | - | 08:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.50 | - | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.90 | - | 08:30 |
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.20 | - | 08:30 |
- S&P/TSX up 0.44% to 34,290; yields surge with 10Y +4.61% to 3.44% on BoC hold bets.
- USD/CAD +0.09% to 1.37 signals CAD weakness vs USD amid global risks; EUR/CAD -0.43% to 1.60.
- May 19 inflation data key for BoC path as surveys show business caution on pricing, hiring.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets gained modestly on May 12 with no data releases. S&P/TSX rose 0.44% to 34,290.70, led by financials and energy despite stable crude. USD/CAD edged up 0.09% to 1.37 on modest CAD softening versus USD, while EUR/CAD declined 0.43% to 1.60 reflecting CAD strength against euro amid European sentiment gains.
Bond yields climbed sharply: 2-year +0.44% to 2.26%, 10-year +4.61% to 3.44%, pricing sustained BoC rates. WTI crude dipped 0.10% to 102.08, Brent rose 0.19% to 107.97 on Middle East supply risks. Natural gas fell 0.56% to 2.83 amid mild weather outlooks.
Gold advanced 0.61% to 4,706.20 on safe-haven demand; Bitcoin +0.19% to 80,634.25. Quiet session digested global tensions without volatility.
The Day Ahead
No events today (May 13). Friday (May 15) Housing Starts at 08:15 ET (medium impact; consensus 242,500 vs prior 235,900) may gauge high-rate resilience. Tuesday (May 19) 08:30 ET brings high-impact YoY Inflation Rate (prior 2.4%), medium-impact Core YoY (2.5%), MoM Inflation (0.9%), New Housing Price Index MoM (-0.2%).
Softer prints could boost BoC cut odds; firmer data reinforces hold. Monitor BoC releases like Business Outlook Survey, Market Participants Survey for forward views on inflation, growth.
Other Economic Notes
Sylogist reported Q1 2026 revenue of $8.1 million with 4.9% SaaS subscription growth. Midland Exploration closed $2.2 million private placement tranche. Chartwell Realty joined Real Brokerage, adding 150 agents, $500 million volume in Kansas City.
BMO announced sale of transportation, vendor finance units to lift returns, capital ratios. Housing metrics weaken with prior price index down 0.2% MoM. Military recruitment hits 30-year high, aiding defense turnaround, easing civilian wage risks.
Global Macro News
US-Iran tensions elevate oil, with WTI/Brent over 100/107 benefiting Canadian exports but stoking inflation via supply threats. Sensex plunged 1,313 points, rupee at record low on crude surge, fading US-Iran peace hopes. <i>↓ p.2</i>
