Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Release Tests BoC Patience as Oil Slides
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 33,833.40 | -1.27% |
| USD/CAD | 1.37 | -0.12% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | -0.06% |
| WTI Crude | 103.84 | -4.44% |
| Natural Gas | 3.06 | +1.29% |
| Gold | 4,542.30 | -0.22% |
| Brent Crude | 111.02 | -0.96% |
| Bitcoin | 76,721.45 | -0.30% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.20% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.53% | +1.34% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Exports | Type: macro_line | CAD mn: 5.285 (2026-03-01) | Range: -16.08–49.3 | Trend(6pt): 49.3,20.13,-0.3218,3.751,-1.457,5.285
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.40 | 3.10 | 04:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.50 | - | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.60 | 04:30 |
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0 | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-05-22) | |||
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.80 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 0.70 | 0.60 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
| Senior Loan Officer Survey | - | - | 06:30 |
- April CPI expected at 3.1% y/y, up from 2.4%, with core measures in focus
- TSX falls 1.27% while WTI crude drops 4.44% to $103.84
- BoC policy rate holds at 2.25% with GDP growth projected at 1.2% for 2026
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets closed lower on May 18 as energy prices retreated sharply. The S&P/TSX Composite declined 1.27% to 33,833.40 amid broad sector weakness. WTI crude fell 4.44% to $103.84 while Brent crude eased 0.96%.
The Canadian dollar gained modestly, with USD/CAD slipping 0.12% to 1.37. Government of Canada yields showed divergence, as the 2-year yield dropped 0.20% to 2.25% while the 10-year yield rose 1.34% to 3.53%. Natural gas advanced 1.29% and gold edged 0.22% lower.
No major data releases occurred, leaving markets focused on positioning ahead of the April inflation print.
The Day Ahead
Statistics Canada will release April CPI figures at 04:30 ET, with headline inflation forecast at 3.1% y/y against a 2.4% prior reading. Core CPI, monthly inflation, and the New Housing Price Index are also due. Markets will parse the data for signs of reacceleration that could delay Bank of Canada easing.
On Friday, retail sales ex-autos and the Senior Loan Officer Survey will provide further insight into consumer demand and credit conditions. No Bank of Canada speakers are scheduled before the next policy decision.
Other Economic Notes
Bank of Canada projections show GDP expanding 1.2% in 2026, with further detail expected on the subsequent two years. Housing affordability remains strained after new-home starts fell sharply in April. Energy producers in Alberta reported solid Q1 cash flows, supporting capital expenditure plans despite policy uncertainty.
Ottawa continues to seek clearer signals on USMCA negotiations to reduce tariff risks for autos and dairy.
Global Macro News
Oil prices above $100 have provided support to the Canadian dollar even as broader USD strength persists. The euro weakened against CAD amid divergent central-bank expectations. IMF commentary on the Bank of England highlighted readiness to cut rates if growth falters, echoing similar debates in Canada.
U.S. <i>↓ p.2</i>
