Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Soft Core CPI Weakens BoC Rate-Hike Bets
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,161.80 | +1.25% |
| USD/CAD | 1.38 | +0.17% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | +0.12% |
| WTI Crude | 101.07 | +2.86% |
| Natural Gas | 3.15 | +4.86% |
| Gold | 4,507.40 | -0.53% |
| Brent Crude | 107.39 | +2.26% |
| Bitcoin | 77,214.23 | -0.31% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.20% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.53% | +1.34% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.50 | - | 2.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0 | -0.40 |
Canada Core Inflation Trend | Type: macro_line | Core CPI YoY %: 2.988 (2026-04-01) | Range: 2.673–6.624 | Trend(6pt): 4.439,6.286,4.027,3.213,2.673,2.988
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-05-22) | |||
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.90 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 0.70 | 0.60 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
| Senior Loan Officer Survey | - | - | 06:30 |
- April CPI YoY at 2.8% missed consensus of 3.1% while core fell to 2.1%, reducing odds of near-term BoC tightening.
- S&P/TSX rose 1.25% to 34,161.80 as WTI crude climbed 2.86% to $101.07 on supply concerns.
- Canada 2-year yield held at 2.25% and USD/CAD edged up 0.17% to 1.38 amid mixed global signals.
Yesterday's Recap
Statistics Canada released April inflation figures showing the headline rate at 2.8% year-over-year, below the 3.1% consensus, while core inflation dropped to 2.1% from 2.5% previously. The month-over-month rate printed at 0.4%, softer than the 0.7% expected, and the new housing price index fell 0.4%. Equity markets responded positively with the S&P/TSX advancing 1.25% to close at 34,161.80, led by energy and financial sectors.
Oil prices surged, with WTI up 2.86% to $101.07 and Brent rising 2.26% to $107.39, supporting the loonie despite a modest 0.17% gain in USD/CAD to 1.38. Government bond yields showed divergence, with the 2-year steady at 2.25% and the 10-year climbing 1.34% to 3.53%. Natural gas jumped 4.86% to $3.15 while gold slipped 0.53% to $4,507.40.
The Day Ahead
Retail sales excluding autos and final retail sales data are scheduled for release tomorrow morning, with consensus pointing to a 0.9% and 0.6% month-over-month rise respectively. The Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey at 6:30 ET will provide fresh insight into credit conditions and lending standards. Markets will watch for any signs of tightening that could reinforce or challenge the current hold stance.
Broader risk sentiment and oil price moves will continue to influence CAD crosses ahead of the long weekend. No major BoC speakers are listed for today.
Other Economic Notes
Canada ranked as the world’s most attractive market for infrastructure investment in a recent poll, surpassing Germany and the United States. The federal government plans to spend $1.1 billion on security for its 13 FIFA World Cup matches. Defence sector investments are projected to exceed $500 billion by 2035, creating opportunities for banks and contractors.
National Bank of Canada partnered with Sardine to enhance digital fraud detection capabilities. These developments underscore Ottawa’s focus on resilience and long-term capital allocation.
