Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Stability Report and GDP Data Ahead
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,471.40 | +0.18% |
| USD/CAD | 1.38 | +0.27% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.50% |
| WTI Crude | 96.60 | +0.00% |
| Natural Gas | 3.02 | +3.92% |
| Gold | 4,523.20 | +0.05% |
| Brent Crude | 100.21 | -3.22% |
| Bitcoin | 77,292.00 | +0.40% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.20% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.53% | +1.34% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada 10Y Government Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 3.53 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(5pt): 1.425,3.148,3.234,3.01,3.53
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-05-28) | |||
| Current Account Balance | -700m | - | 04:30 |
| BoC Financial Stability Report | - | - | 06:00 |
| Friday (2026-05-29) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | -0.20 | - | 04:30 |
| GDP Growth Rate Annualized | -0.60 | - | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
- S&P/TSX rose 0.18% to 34,471.40 while USD/CAD climbed 0.27% to 1.38 on softer oil.
- Canada 2-year yield fell 0.20% to 2.25% as 10-year yield rose 1.34% to 3.53%.
- Focus shifts to BoC Financial Stability Report and Q1 GDP releases next week.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets posted modest gains on May 24 with no major data releases. The S&P/TSX Composite advanced 0.18% to close at 34,471.40, supported by energy and materials sectors. USD/CAD rose 0.27% to 1.38 while EUR/CAD gained 0.50% to 1.61 amid retreating oil prices.
WTI Crude held at 96.60 with Brent Crude falling 3.22% to 100.21. Natural gas jumped 3.92% to 3.02 and gold edged 0.05% higher to 4,523.20. Canada 2-year government yield declined 0.20% to 2.25% while the 10-year yield increased 1.34% to 3.53%.
Bitcoin gained 0.40% to 77,292.00 with limited domestic drivers.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report on May 28 at 6:00 ET. Current Account Balance data follows at 4:30 ET the same day. GDP figures dominate May 29 with quarter-over-quarter, annualized, and month-over-month prints all scheduled for 4:30 ET.
Consensus expects month-over-month GDP at 0.1% after a 0.2% prior reading. Markets will assess implications for the 2.25% policy rate path. No senior Bank speakers are scheduled.
Other Economic Notes
Canada CPI stood at 2.32% year-over-year in the latest reading, leaving room for policy patience. Retail sales strength has not yet shifted expectations for near-term easing. Housing starts and oil production data point to mixed domestic momentum.
Critical minerals cooperation talks with the US offer support for materials equities. Broader themes center on energy price volatility and CAD sensitivity to global risk appetite.
Global Macro News
A new Fed chair raises questions over US-Canada policy divergence and CAD direction. Oil prices retreated on renewed US-Iran peace hopes, capping CAD gains. Euro advanced against the loonie as risk appetite weighed on commodity currencies.
HSBC noted limited CAD support from oil despite recent gains. Brazil’s high-rate environment continues to slow growth, with spillover effects on global sentiment. US trade policies and Iran developments remain key external risks for Canadian rates.
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