Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
TSX Slides as PMI Eases Ahead of Jobs Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,801.50 | -1.05% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | +0.34% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | +0.49% |
| WTI Crude | 93.84 | -2.27% |
| Natural Gas | 3.26 | +1.43% |
| Gold | 4,518.70 | +1.85% |
| Brent Crude | 95.50 | -2.36% |
| Bitcoin | 62,207.71 | -2.82% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.20% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.53% | +1.34% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.30 | - | 52.90 |
Canada 10Y Government Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 3.53 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.251,3.148,3.711,3.289,3.441,3.53
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-06-05) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.90 | 6.90 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | -17,700 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -46,700 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | 65.10 | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 29,000 | - | 04:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 57.70 | 55 | 06:00 |
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 in May from 53.3, signaling slower factory expansion.
- S&P/TSX dropped 1.05% to 34,801.50 while USD/CAD rose 0.34% to 1.39 amid softer Canadian data.
- Bank of Canada policy rate remains at 2.25% with BofA forecasting no change through year-end.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.9 in May, extending the slowdown in factory activity after April’s 53.3 reading. Equity markets reflected the softer tone as the S&P/TSX closed down 1.05% at 34,801.50. The Canadian dollar weakened, with USD/CAD climbing 0.34% to 1.39 and EUR/CAD advancing 0.49% to 1.62.
Energy prices weighed on sentiment, sending WTI crude 2.27% lower to 93.84 and Brent 2.36% lower to 95.50. Government bond yields showed mixed moves, with the 2-year yield falling 0.20% to 2.25% while the 10-year yield rose 1.34% to 3.53%. Broader risk-off flows lifted gold 1.85% to 4,518.70 even as Bitcoin fell 2.82%.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on Friday’s Canadian labor report due at 04:30 ET. Consensus expects the unemployment rate to hold at 6.9% while employment is forecast to rebound by 10,000 after last month’s 17,700 decline. Ivey PMI is projected to slip to 55.0 from 57.7, offering a fresh read on business conditions.
Any material beat or miss on hiring will shift odds around the Bank of Canada’s June decision. Traders will also monitor USD/CAD reaction to the data for clues on near-term rate differentials.
Other Economic Notes
Economists continue to debate whether Canada has entered a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Recent data show the label remains complicated by resilient consumer spending and energy exports. Newly proposed U.S.
tariffs are viewed as having only limited impact on the overall outlook. Higher-for-longer rates continue to pressure bank stocks while supporting wider Canada-US yield spreads. Canada CPI YoY stood at 2.32% as of March 2025.
Global Macro News
The Bank of England cut its policy rate to 4% to support a sluggish UK economy. Middle East tensions kept oil prices volatile despite the day’s decline, with analysts warning of further upside if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Australia’s central bank signaled vigilance over higher rates and energy shocks.
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