Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Canada PMI Slips Ahead of Jobs Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,573.52 | -1.83% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | +0.35% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.39% |
| WTI Crude | 90.73 | -2.48% |
| Natural Gas | 3.23 | -3.06% |
| Gold | 4,365.20 | -2.47% |
| Brent Crude | 93.44 | -1.67% |
| Bitcoin | 60,221.35 | -5.61% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.20% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.53% | +1.34% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.30 | - | 52.90 |
Canada Labor Force Participation | Type: macro_line | Participation Rate %: 6.9 (2026-04-01) | Range: 4.8–7.4 | Trend(6pt): 7.4,5.1,5.8,6.7,6.7,6.9
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 6.90 | 6.90 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | -17,700 | 10,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -46,700 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | 65.10 | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 29,000 | - | 04:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 57.70 | 55 | 06:00 |
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 in May from 53.3, signaling slower factory expansion.
- S&P/TSX declined 1.83% to 34,573.52 while USD/CAD rose 0.35% to 1.39 amid mixed yields.
- BoC policy rate holds at 2.25% with CPI at 2.32% y/y, keeping markets focused on July timing.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.9 in May, extending the pullback from April’s 53.3 reading and pointing to softer goods-sector momentum. Equity markets reacted with the S&P/TSX falling 1.83% to close at 34,573.52 as energy and materials weighed on the index. USD/CAD climbed 0.35% to 1.39 while EUR/CAD eased 0.39% to 1.61, reflecting modest CAD underperformance.
Canada 2-year yields dropped 0.20% to 2.25% and the 10-year rose 1.34% to 3.53%, steepening the curve. WTI Crude fell 2.48% to 90.73 and natural gas dropped 3.06% to 3.23, pressuring resource-linked assets. Gold declined 2.47% to 4,365.20 as safe-haven flows eased.
No Bank of Canada speakers appeared, leaving markets to digest the PMI without fresh policy signals.
The Day Ahead
Canada releases its May Labour Force Survey at 04:30 ET, with unemployment expected to hold at 6.9% and employment forecast to rebound by 10,000 after April’s 17,700 decline. Full-time and part-time employment changes plus labour-force participation will also print, offering detail on labour-market breadth. The Ivey PMI follows at 06:00 ET, with consensus at 55.0 versus April’s 57.7, testing service-sector resilience.
Markets will parse the jobs data for implications on BoC easing odds priced into OIS. No Governing Council members are scheduled to speak, keeping focus squarely on the data.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s economic arbiter confirmed the country is not in recession despite two consecutive quarters of negative growth, citing underlying demand strength. Ottawa launched a $25 billion fund to counter pressures from a weaker loonie and elevated yields on household and corporate balance sheets. Housing starts continued to slide, extending affordability strains that keep consumption sensitive to rate paths.
Alberta energy producers reported firmer cash flows, supporting provincial revenues even as national commodity prices eased.
