Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Poised to Hold Ahead of Trade Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,478.70 | +0.19% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | -0.16% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.31% |
| WTI Crude | 89.28 | -2.21% |
| Natural Gas | 3.19 | +1.53% |
| Gold | 4,365.00 | +0.67% |
| Brent Crude | 92.77 | -1.57% |
| Bitcoin | 62,598.67 | -0.78% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.20% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.53% | +1.34% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 3.53 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.251,3.148,3.711,3.289,3.441,3.53
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 1,780m | 2,600m | 04:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-06-10) | |||
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 05:45 |
| BoC Press Conference | - | - | 06:30 |
- Markets price steady 2.25% policy rate at tomorrow’s decision after weak Q1 growth.
- Trade balance expected to widen to C$2.6 bn, supporting CAD amid softer USD/CAD.
- TSX edges higher while 10-year yields rise 1.34% on energy price swings.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets closed with modest gains as the S&P/TSX rose 0.19% to 34,478.70. USD/CAD fell 0.16% to 1.39 while EUR/CAD climbed 0.31%. WTI crude dropped 2.21% to $89.28 and Brent fell 1.57%, weighing on energy names.
The 2-year Canada yield eased 0.20% to 2.25% while the 10-year yield rose 1.34% to 3.53%. No major data releases occurred on 8 June, leaving price action driven by global oil moves and positioning ahead of the Bank of Canada. Natural gas gained 1.53% and gold added 0.67%, providing limited offsets to the equity and currency moves.
The Day Ahead
Statistics Canada releases the May trade balance at 04:30 ET, with consensus pointing to a C$2.6 bn surplus versus the prior C$1.78 bn. The print will offer the last major data point before the Bank of Canada decision. Markets widely expect the policy rate to remain at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting.
The accompanying press conference at 06:30 ET will be scrutinized for any shift in language on unemployment and inflation. Overnight positioning in CAD crosses and front-end yields is expected to remain light until the outcome.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s CPI stood at 2.32% YoY in the latest reading, keeping inflation near the Bank’s target. Weak first-quarter GDP has reinforced expectations that the committee will maintain its cautious stance. Desjardins analysts note that markets appear to underprice the probability of no further hikes this year.
Broader commentary highlights rising recession risks if consumer weakness persists without rate relief.
Global Macro News
Oil prices eased after Iran and Israel agreed to halt strikes, reducing near-term supply risk premiums. U.S. rate-cut expectations and Treasury moves continue to influence CAD crosses.
Bitcoin fell 0.78% to $62,598.67, reflecting risk-off sentiment that spilled into Canadian equities. Global equity futures point to a cautious open in Toronto ahead of domestic data. Energy commodity volatility remains the dominant external driver for Canadian terms of trade and fiscal revenues.
