Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Set to Hold as Trade Surplus Hits Record
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | nan | +nan% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | -0.17% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.10% |
| WTI Crude | 89.87 | +1.89% |
| Natural Gas | 3.23 | +2.99% |
| Gold | 4,178.40 | -1.92% |
| Brent Crude | 92.94 | +1.63% |
| Bitcoin | 60,974.06 | -1.09% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.25% | -0.20% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.53% | +1.34% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 1,750m | 2,600m | 2,720m |
BoC Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 2.251 (2026-04-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.1898,3.102,5.014,3.222,2.256,2.251
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | 05:45 |
| BoC Press Conference | - | - | 06:30 |
- BoC set to hold policy rate at 2.25% for fifth straight meeting amid mixed growth signals
- April trade surplus widens to C$2.72B, beating consensus on record crude exports
- CAD slips to 1.39 versus USD as markets price steady rates and persistent inflation risks
Yesterday's Recap
Canada posted its largest trade surplus since before U.S. tariffs in April, with exports reaching record highs driven by crude oil while imports rose to C$72.44B. The actual surplus of C$2.72B exceeded the C$2.60B consensus, supporting a hawkish tilt despite recession concerns flagged by Rabobank.
USD/CAD closed at 1.39 after a 0.17% decline, while WTI crude rose 1.89% to 89.87 and natural gas gained 2.99% to 3.23. Canada 2-year yields fell 0.20% to 2.25% and the 10-year yield rose 1.34% to 3.53%. Equity markets saw modest pressure on the S&P/TSX from bank sector weakness and higher yields.
News flow highlighted steady inflation at 2.32% y/y and downside risks to growth that complicate near-term policy easing.
The Day Ahead
The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 5:45 ET, with markets expecting no change from the current 2.25% policy rate. A press conference follows at 6:30 ET, providing forward guidance on inflation and growth trade-offs. No other major Canadian data releases are scheduled.
Traders will focus on any signals about quantitative tightening and the balance between upside inflation risks and downside growth risks. CAD crosses may see volatility if the statement deviates from the expected hold.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s technical recession and persistent inflation continue to squeeze policy options, with imports rising sharply and complicating the disinflation path. Financials have supported the S&P/TSX 60 amid broader equity weakness, while housing and labor data remain soft. Ottawa’s preliminary softwood lumber agreement with Washington removes one trade overhang but does little to offset broader tariff uncertainty.
Energy export strength offers a buffer yet fails to lift overall GDP momentum.
