Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Housing Drop Intensifies BoC Cut Bets
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,125.10 | -0.75% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | +0.97% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | -0.31% |
| WTI Crude | 74.82 | -2.57% |
| Natural Gas | 3.15 | +0.19% |
| Gold | 4,267.50 | -2.10% |
| Brent Crude | 78.67 | -1.11% |
| Bitcoin | 63,895.68 | -2.60% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing Starts Level | 278,400 | 255,100 | 261,400 |
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.40 | -0.10 | -0.30 |
BoC Policy Rate vs 2Y Yield | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 2.292 (2026-05-01) | Range: 0.078–5.08 | Trend(6pt): 0.1675,3.42,4.996,3.058,2.23,2.292 | 10Y Yield %: 3.542 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.251,3.148,3.711,3.289,3.501,3.542
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-06-19) | |||
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 1.40 | 0.70 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 0.90 | 0.60 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | 0.60 | - | 04:30 |
- Canada new housing prices fell 0.3% in May, exceeding forecasts and intensifying expectations for Bank of Canada easing.
- S&P/TSX declined 0.75% to 35,125 while USD/CAD rose 0.97% to 1.41 amid softer domestic data.
- BoC policy rate holds at 2.24% with CPI at 2.32% y/y, leaving markets focused on July decision risks.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada housing starts came in at 261,400 in May, above the 255,100 consensus, while the new housing price index dropped 0.3% month-over-month against a -0.1% forecast. The softer price reading reinforced dovish Bank of Canada speculation and weighed on the Canadian dollar. The S&P/TSX closed 0.75% lower at 35,125.10 as energy and materials sectors retreated.
USD/CAD climbed to 1.41, up 0.97%, while the 2-year government yield eased 0.50% to 2.24% and the 10-year yield rose to 3.54%. WTI crude fell 2.57% to 74.82 and gold declined 2.10% to 4,267.50. Market pricing shifted toward greater odds of a BoC cut later this year on the housing data surprise.
National Bank of Canada sees USD/CAD remaining range-bound as offsetting Fed and BoC expectations limit directional moves.
The Day Ahead
Retail sales excluding autos and headline retail sales figures are scheduled for release tomorrow morning. Economists expect the ex-autos print to slow to 0.7% month-over-month from 1.4% previously. Markets will watch for any deviation that could alter BoC policy odds.
No senior Bank of Canada speakers are listed for today. Traders will also monitor global oil flows after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Lower energy prices reduce imported inflation risks for Canada but pressure domestic producers and related equities.
Other Economic Notes
Statistics Canada reported a 55,000 decline in population during the first quarter of 2026, the first quarterly drop in years. The softer demographic trend could dampen household spending and housing demand going forward. National Bank of Canada views USD/CAD as range-bound as Fed and BoC expectations offset each other.
C.D. Howe Institute called for clearer Bank of Canada communications with the public to reduce policy uncertainty. Century 21 Canada expanded its Quebec footprint by 39% since 2023, adding 14 offices and underscoring regional resilience despite national housing softness.
