Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Canada CPI Hits 29-Month High at 3.2%
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,998.00 | -0.01% |
| USD/CAD | 1.42 | +0.24% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | -0.50% |
| WTI Crude | 72.91 | -2.55% |
| Natural Gas | 3.18 | -2.27% |
| Gold | 4,157.50 | -0.58% |
| Brent Crude | 76.92 | -1.26% |
| Bitcoin | 62,436.85 | -2.37% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 3 | 3.20 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.10 | - | 2.20 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.80 | 1 |
| BoC Gov Macklem Speech | - | - | - |
Canada Short-Term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | 3M Rate %: 2.292 (2026-05-01) | Range: 0.078–5.08 | Trend(6pt): 0.1675,3.42,4.996,3.058,2.23,2.292
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-06-24) | |||
| BoC Rogers Speech | - | - | 03:15 |
- May CPI rose to 3.2% y/y, beating consensus of 3.0% and prior 2.8%
- Core inflation increased to 2.2% y/y while m/m print reached 1.0%
- USD/CAD advanced 0.24% to 1.42 as hotter data tempered rate-cut bets
Yesterday's Recap
Statistics Canada reported May CPI at 3.2% y/y, driven by gasoline prices that climbed sharply and pushed the headline to a 29-month high. Core CPI printed 2.2% y/y, modestly above the prior 2.1%. The Bank of Canada policy rate stood at 2.24%.
The S&P/TSX closed essentially flat at 34,998.00. Canada 2-year yields fell 0.50% to 2.24% while the 10-year rose 1.67% to 3.54%. USD/CAD strengthened as markets scaled back near-term easing expectations.
WTI crude dropped 2.55% to 72.91 amid broader energy weakness.
The Day Ahead
Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rogers is scheduled to speak at 03:15 ET, with markets watching for any signals on inflation persistence. No other high-impact Canadian data releases are listed for the session. Economists will parse Rogers’ remarks for updates on how the 3.2% print alters the Governing Council’s reaction function.
Overnight index swaps currently price roughly 50 basis points of cuts by year-end. CAD crosses may remain sensitive to any hawkish tone on energy-driven price pressures.
Other Economic Notes
National Bank lowered its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.7% citing weak first-quarter results and persistent housing affordability constraints. Royal Bank of Canada raised its dividend after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, supporting financials within the TSX. Energy producers face margin pressure from the 2.55% decline in WTI, even as gasoline inflation lifted the CPI.
Broader credit conditions remain stable at the current 2.24% policy rate.
Global Macro News
U.S. Federal Reserve speakers signaled potential rate increases as soon as September, supporting the U.S. dollar and weighing on commodity currencies including the CAD.
Oil prices fell further after signs of progress in U.S.-Iran talks reduced geopolitical risk premiums. Safe-haven flows pushed the Canadian dollar to 14-month lows against the USD despite the domestic inflation surprise. Trade-war concerns continued to dominate CAD sentiment, overriding mixed domestic data.
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