Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Holds as CPI Jumps to 3.2%
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,850.20 | +0.33% |
| USD/CAD | 1.42 | -0.40% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | +0.05% |
| WTI Crude | 69.74 | -3.03% |
| Natural Gas | 3.34 | -0.09% |
| Gold | 4,068.80 | +0.95% |
| Brent Crude | 73.16 | -2.79% |
| Bitcoin | 59,369.05 | -0.59% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 3 | 3.20 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.10 | - | 2.20 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.80 | 1 |
| BoC Gov Macklem Speech | - | - | - |
| BoC Rogers Speech | - | - | - |
Canada Policy Rate vs 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 2.292 (2026-05-01) | Range: 0.078–5.08 | Trend(6pt): 0.1675,3.42,4.996,3.058,2.23,2.292 | 10Y Yield %: 3.542 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.251,3.148,3.711,3.289,3.501,3.542
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- CPI rose 3.2% YoY, above 3.0% consensus, while core reached 2.2%
- Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2.24% with balanced hike-cut risks
- S&P/TSX rises 0.33% and USD/CAD falls 0.40% as oil declines
Yesterday's Recap
Statistics Canada reported May CPI at 3.2% year-over-year, exceeding consensus and marking the largest increase since 2023, while the month-over-month rate hit 1.0%. Core CPI advanced to 2.2%. Governor Macklem and Deputy Governor Rogers delivered speeches that highlighted excess imbalances in the financial system without signaling imminent policy shifts.
The S&P/TSX closed at 34,850.20 after gaining 0.33%, led by non-energy sectors. USD/CAD declined to 1.42 as the Canadian dollar benefited from a softer US dollar. Canada 2-year yields fell 0.50% to 2.24% while the 10-year yield rose 1.67% to 3.54%.
WTI crude dropped 3.03% to 69.74 amid higher US inventory data. Recent indicators show Canada avoiding recession despite softer Q1 growth, with housing starts remaining resilient. Public support for the 2% inflation target stays firm according to Bank of Canada surveys.
Tariff consultations with the United States on steel are viewed as procedural rather than disruptive. Broader credit conditions remain stable even as quantitative tightening continues at a measured pace.
The Day Ahead
No high-impact Canadian data releases are scheduled for 26 June. Markets will monitor follow-up commentary from Bank of Canada officials for any adjustment in forward guidance. Energy traders will track global oil supply developments that could influence CAD and TSX energy weights.
Fixed-income desks will assess positioning ahead of month-end flows. Equity investors will focus on sector rotation signals after yesterday’s modest TSX advance.
Other Economic Notes
Recent indicators show Canada avoiding recession despite softer Q1 growth, with housing starts remaining resilient. Public support for the 2% inflation target stays firm according to Bank of Canada surveys. Tariff consultations with the United States on steel are viewed as procedural rather than disruptive.
Broader credit conditions remain stable even as quantitative tightening continues at a measured pace. Alberta oil-sands producers reported Q2 maintenance delays that could trim near-term supply. CMHC June housing starts came in at 242 k, signalling resilient demand ahead of expected rate cuts.
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