Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
GDP Rebound Eyed as BoC Holds Steady
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,823.80 | -0.45% |
| USD/CAD | 1.42 | -0.08% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | +0.37% |
| WTI Crude | 70.89 | +0.20% |
| Natural Gas | 3.31 | +3.93% |
| Gold | 4,031.80 | +0.24% |
| Brent Crude | 74.21 | +1.45% |
| Bitcoin | 58,570.00 | -2.61% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.24% | -0.50% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.54% | +1.67% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 3.542 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.251,3.148,3.711,3.289,3.501,3.542
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Prel | 0.40 | - | 04:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-07-01) | |||
| BoC Gov Macklem Speech | - | - | 05:00 |
| Thursday (2026-07-02) | |||
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | - | - | 05:30 |
- May GDP seen rebounding 0.4% MoM after April contraction, easing recession fears.
- BoC holds policy rate at 2.24% for fifth straight meeting amid mixed growth signals.
- TSX falls 0.45% while CAD firms 0.08% versus USD on steady policy outlook.
Yesterday's Recap
Markets digested reports of persistent growth drag and the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate unchanged. The S&P/TSX closed 0.45% lower at 34,823.80 as investors weighed soft domestic momentum against resilient energy prices. USD/CAD eased 0.08% to 1.42, supported by narrowing rate differentials and steady BoC guidance.
The Canada 2-year yield dropped 0.50% to 2.24% while the 10-year yield rose 1.67% to 3.54%, reflecting a modest steepening bias. WTI crude gained 0.20% to 70.89 and natural gas jumped 3.93% to 3.31 amid supply concerns. Gold advanced 0.24% to 4,031.80 as a modest haven bid emerged.
Bitcoin fell 2.61% to 58,570.00, tracking broader risk-off sentiment.
The Day Ahead
Statistics Canada releases May GDP at 04:30 ET, with consensus pointing to a 0.4% month-over-month gain after April’s -0.1% print. The preliminary reading will clarify whether the economy has exited its technical recession. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at 05:00 ET on July 1, offering fresh forward guidance ahead of the July policy meeting.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June follows on July 2, providing an early gauge of factory momentum. Traders will parse Macklem’s remarks for any shift in the Bank’s assessment of excess imbalances and inflation risks.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s CPI stood at 2.32% year-over-year in March, keeping the Bank of Canada on a data-dependent path. Steady policy has anchored short-term yields near 2.24% while longer-term bonds price modest reflation. Energy export revenues remain central to the CAD outlook, with Brent at 74.21 supporting the trade balance.
Housing and consumer spending data continue to show subdued momentum, limiting upside risks to inflation. Markets now price limited BoC easing through year-end.
Global Macro News
ECB officials signaled possible further tightening in September, supporting the euro and lifting EUR/CAD 0.37% to 1.62. <i>↓ p.2</i>
