Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Canada CPI Cools to 2.8%, TSX Falls
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 34,960.30 | -0.86% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | +0.33% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.29% |
| WTI Crude | 83.65 | +0.50% |
| Natural Gas | 2.87 | +0.45% |
| Gold | 4,062.70 | +1.31% |
| Brent Crude | 90.41 | +1.33% |
| Bitcoin | 66,246.35 | +1.56% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.20 | - | 2.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1 | -0.20 | -0.40 |
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 3.42 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.192,3.381,3.234,3.056,3.518,3.42
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-07-23) | |||
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 1.40 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 0.50 | 1 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-07-24) | |||
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.30 | -0.20 | 04:30 |
- June CPI eased to 2.8% y/y on lower gasoline prices, undershooting consensus.
- S&P/TSX fell 0.86% as banks weakened while energy prices rose.
- USD/CAD climbed to 1.41 amid softer domestic inflation data.
Yesterday's Recap
Statistics Canada reported June CPI at 2.8% y/y, down from 3.2% previously and below the 2.9% consensus, with the month-over-month reading at -0.4%. Core inflation moderated to 2.1% from 2.2%. The S&P/TSX closed at 34,960.30, down 0.86%, pressured by bank shares while energy components held firmer.
Canada 2-year yields rose 1 basis point to 2.27% and the 10-year yield fell 3.43% to 3.42%. USD/CAD advanced 0.33% to 1.41 as the loonie weakened on the soft print. WTI crude gained 0.50% to 83.65 and natural gas rose 0.45% to 2.87.
Gold climbed 1.31% to 4,062.70. Lower gasoline prices drove the June CPI deceleration, supporting the view that domestic price pressures are moderating without broad-based weakness. Energy equities benefited from WTI above 83 dollars while broader TSX performance lagged on financial sector softness.
Government of Canada yields showed mixed moves, with the front end firming slightly against the policy rate at 2.27%.
The Day Ahead
Retail sales excluding autos are scheduled for release on July 23 at 4:30 ET, with consensus calling for a 1.4% month-over-month increase after a 0.1% prior reading. Full retail sales are expected to rise 1.0% following the 0.5% May outcome. The new housing price index will follow on July 24, with markets anticipating a -0.2% month-over-month change.
No Bank of Canada speakers or policy announcements are listed. Traders will monitor oil price follow-through and any USD/CAD reaction to the retail figures for clues on near-term growth momentum. Housing and retail data due this week will provide further input on consumer resilience ahead of the next policy decision.
Other Economic Notes
Lower gasoline prices drove the June CPI deceleration, supporting the view that domestic price pressures are moderating without broad-based weakness. Energy equities benefited from WTI above 83 dollars while broader TSX performance lagged on financial sector softness. Government of Canada yields showed mixed moves, with the front end firming slightly against the policy rate at 2.27%.
Market pricing continues to reflect limited near-term easing pressure given the still-elevated 10-year yield at 3.42%. <i>↓ p.2</i>
