Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Canada CPI Eases to 2.8% Amid New US Tariffs
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,369.10 | +1.17% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | +0.15% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.10% |
| WTI Crude | 87.41 | +2.94% |
| Natural Gas | 2.88 | +0.66% |
| Gold | 4,123.00 | +1.27% |
| Brent Crude | 84.76 | -6.87% |
| Bitcoin | 65,964.11 | -0.81% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.20 | - | 2.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1 | -0.20 | -0.40 |
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment %: 6.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7.1,5.1,5.8,6.6,6.9,6.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-07-23) | |||
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 1.40 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 0.50 | 1 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-07-24) | |||
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.30 | -0.20 | 04:30 |
- Canada June CPI eases to 2.8% y/y, undershooting consensus of 2.9%
- US 50% tariffs target roughly 5% of Canadian exports to America
- S&P/TSX climbs 1.17% while 10-year yield falls 3.43% to 3.42%
Yesterday's Recap
Statistics Canada reported June CPI at 2.8% year-over-year, down from 3.2% in May and below the 2.9% consensus. Core inflation slowed to 2.1% from 2.2%, while the month-over-month rate printed -0.4% against expectations of -0.2%. The softer print reinforced views that price pressures are moderating.
Markets reacted with the S&P/TSX advancing 1.17% to 35,369.10, driven by energy and materials strength. The 10-year Government of Canada yield declined 3.43% to 3.42%, and the 2-year yield rose 1.00% to 2.27%. USD/CAD edged 0.15% higher to 1.41 as tariff headlines offset the inflation relief.
WTI crude gained 2.94% to 87.41, supporting the energy-heavy index.
The Day Ahead
Retail sales excluding autos are scheduled for release at 04:30 ET on 23 July, with consensus calling for a 1.4% month-over-month gain after a 0.1% prior reading. Headline retail sales are expected to rise 1.0% versus 0.5% previously. Economists will assess whether consumer spending can sustain the modest growth seen in recent months.
Any material downside surprise could revive speculation around Bank of Canada easing later this year. Housing price data on 24 July will provide an additional read on domestic demand. Markets anticipate limited volatility ahead of the data.
Other Economic Notes
New US tariffs covering select Canadian goods are estimated to affect about 5% of bilateral exports and have already pressured the loonie. Higher oil prices provided partial offset, with WTI rising sharply on supply concerns. The combination of cooling inflation and trade friction leaves domestic growth forecasts finely balanced.
Government bond curves flattened as longer-term yields declined on tariff uncertainty. Equity investors focused on commodity strength rather than policy signals.
Global Macro News
President Trump’s new 50% tariffs on targeted Canadian products aim to extract trade concessions and have prompted warnings from economists about slower export growth. Middle East tensions linked to Iran lifted global oil benchmarks, benefiting Canadian energy producers despite Brent’s separate decline. The Canadian dollar received support from higher crude prices but faced renewed selling on tariff headlines.
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