Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Softer CPI Fuels Rate-Cut Bets Amid Tariffs
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,485.10 | +0.33% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | +0.24% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | -0.25% |
| WTI Crude | 90.71 | +4.47% |
| Natural Gas | 2.95 | +0.96% |
| Gold | 4,085.50 | -1.48% |
| Brent Crude | 93.08 | -1.05% |
| Bitcoin | 65,549.42 | -0.83% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.20 | - | 2.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1 | -0.20 | -0.40 |
Canada Short-Term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 2.267 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.2007,3.314,5.015,2.993,2.251,2.267
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 1.40 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 0.50 | 1 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-07-24) | |||
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.30 | -0.20 | 04:30 |
- Canada CPI YoY cooled to 2.8% in June, below consensus, easing price pressures.
- Retail sales data due today could reinforce cooling consumer demand and September easing odds.
- TSX rose 0.33% while WTI surged 4.47% on supply concerns tied to Middle East tensions.
Yesterday's Recap
June inflation data released yesterday showed CPI YoY at 2.8%, softer than the 2.9% consensus and 3.2% prior reading. Core CPI YoY also eased to 2.1% while the monthly rate fell 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.2% decline. The prints confirmed decelerating price pressures and supported front-end yields.
Markets reacted with the S&P/TSX advancing 0.33% to 35,485.10, led by energy names as WTI crude jumped 4.47% to 90.71. USD/CAD rose 0.24% to 1.41 despite the oil rally, while the Canada 10-year yield fell 3.43% to 3.42%. The 2-year yield edged up 1% to 2.27%, aligning with the BoC policy rate.
No speeches occurred to alter the data-driven narrative. Natural gas rose 0.96% to 2.95 and gold declined 1.48% to 4,085.50 amid the broader commodity rotation.
The Day Ahead
Retail sales excluding autos and the final monthly print are scheduled for release at 04:30 ET, with consensus pointing to a 1.4% and 1% rebound respectively after prior weakness. The preliminary retail sales figure will also be watched for any revisions that could shift growth views. New housing price index data follows tomorrow, expected to show a 0.2% monthly decline.
Traders will parse the sales numbers for evidence of consumer resilience ahead of the next BoC decision. Any downside surprise would lift September cut probabilities already priced near 70%. Energy markets remain sensitive to further geopolitical headlines that could sustain the recent WTI advance.
Brent crude closed at 93.08 while bitcoin eased 0.83% to 65,549.42.
Other Economic Notes
Broader themes center on the interplay between softening domestic demand and external tariff risks from the United States. Alberta producers have flagged lower capex amid volatile realizations, adding to regional growth concerns. Housing affordability metrics continue to deteriorate, with starts running below expectations and prices under pressure.
Ottawa’s consultations on USMCA dairy quotas have drawn immediate U.S. pushback, raising the prospect of renewed trade friction. <i>↓ p.2</i>
