Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Cools to 2.8% as Retail Sales Beat Forecasts
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,192.70 | -0.82% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | +0.02% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | -0.26% |
| WTI Crude | 89.83 | -2.56% |
| Natural Gas | 2.91 | -0.03% |
| Gold | 4,060.90 | +0.35% |
| Brent Crude | 92.00 | -8.63% |
| Bitcoin | 64,938.89 | -0.16% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.20 | - | 2.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1 | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Final | 0.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month Prel | 1 | - | 0.40 |
Canada Core CPI YoY | Type: macro_line | YoY %: 2.806 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.673–6.624 | Trend(6pt): 3.94,6.295,3.915,3.138,2.957,2.806
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Housing Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.30 | -0.20 | 04:30 |
- Canada CPI YoY fell to 2.8% in June, below 2.9% consensus, while core eased to 2.1%.
- Retail sales ex-autos rose 1.2% m/m and headline sales gained 1.0%, beating expectations.
- S&P/TSX fell 0.82% to 35,192.70; 10-year yield dropped 3.43% to 3.42% as USD/CAD edged up 0.02% to 1.41.
Yesterday's Recap
June CPI printed at 2.8% y/y, undershooting the 2.9% consensus and marking the third consecutive decline from 3.2%. Core inflation moderated to 2.1% while the monthly rate contracted 0.4%. Retail sales excluding autos advanced 1.2% m/m against a 1.4% forecast, and the final headline print rose 1.0%, confirming consumer resilience outside vehicles.
The S&P/TSX closed 0.82% lower at 35,192.70 amid energy sector weakness as WTI crude fell 2.56% to 89.83. Canada’s 2-year yield rose 1.00% to 2.27% while the 10-year yield declined 3.43% to 3.42%, flattening the curve. USD/CAD ticked up 0.02% to 1.41 as the loonie found limited support from softer inflation.
Natural gas slipped 0.03% to 2.91 amid mild weather forecasts.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the July New Housing Price Index due at 04:30 ET, with consensus calling for a 0.2% m/m decline after June’s 0.3% drop. The release will test whether cooling inflation and steady retail spending are translating into firmer housing demand. No Bank of Canada speakers are scheduled.
Traders will also monitor global oil flows after Brent crude’s 8.63% slide, which could influence CAD crosses. OIS markets continue to price a modest chance of a BoC move later this year given the 2.27% policy rate. Any surprise housing rebound could trim cut expectations and support front-end yields.
Other Economic Notes
Softer June inflation reinforces the view that price pressures are normalizing toward the 2% target, supporting the current 2.27% policy rate stance. Retail strength concentrated outside autos suggests underlying consumer demand remains intact despite higher borrowing costs. Energy price volatility continues to dominate CAD and TSX moves, with WTI at 89.83 highlighting external demand risks.
Provincial fiscal outlooks may benefit from sustained crude levels above 85, yet housing affordability concerns persist as price indices trend lower. Broader fiscal policy remains focused on tariff responses rather than new domestic stimulus.
