Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Trade Tensions Top Risks in BoC Survey
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,568.10 | +0.56% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | +0.13% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | -0.11% |
| WTI Crude | 81.33 | -1.55% |
| Natural Gas | 2.73 | -1.26% |
| Gold | 4,027.90 | -1.14% |
| Brent Crude | 86.63 | -1.96% |
| Bitcoin | 63,403.08 | -0.51% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Market Participants Survey | - | - | "" |
Canada Short-Term Interest Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 2.267 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.1604–5.026 | Trend(6pt): 0.2007,3.314,5.015,2.993,2.251,2.267
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-07-31) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Prel | 0.10 | - | 04:30 |
- BoC survey flags US trade tensions as leading economic risk.
- TSX rises 0.56% while CAD weakens 0.13% against USD.
- GDP month-over-month print due Friday with 0.2% consensus.
Yesterday's Recap
The Bank of Canada released its Market Participants Survey for the second quarter of 2026 on July 27. Respondents ranked US trade tensions as the top risk to the Canadian economy. Governor remarks reinforced that tariffs reduce efficiency by distorting resource allocation.
The S&P/TSX index closed 0.56% higher at 35,568.10. USD/CAD advanced 0.13% to 1.41 while the 2-year Government of Canada yield rose 1.00% to 2.27%. The 10-year yield fell 3.43% to 3.42%.
WTI crude declined 1.55% to 81.33 amid softer global demand signals. EUR/CAD eased 0.11% to 1.60. Natural gas fell 1.26% to 2.73 and gold slipped 1.14% to 4,027.90.
Brent crude dropped 1.96% to 86.63. Bitcoin declined 0.51% to 63,403.08.
The Day Ahead
Statistics Canada will publish July GDP month-over-month data on Friday at 4:30 ET. Markets expect a 0.2% increase after the prior 0.5% reading. A preliminary estimate for the same month is also scheduled.
No other high-impact Canadian releases appear on the calendar through July 29. Traders will monitor any follow-up comments from Bank of Canada officials on the survey findings. Energy price movements will influence CAD crosses ahead of the weekend.
The TD report on West Coast pipeline expansion remains a focal point for medium-term growth expectations.
Other Economic Notes
A TD Economics report projects a meaningful GDP lift from the West Coast pipeline expansion once operational. The project would add sustained output in the energy sector and related supply chains. Broader productivity concerns persist as trade frictions raise input costs for manufacturers.
The Bank of Canada has scheduled eight policy decision dates for 2027, signaling a steady meeting cadence amid prolonged data dependence. Market participants continue to price limited near-term rate volatility given the 2.27% policy rate. First Trust Advisors LP increased its position in Royal Bank of Canada.
