Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
TSX Advances on Oil Surge as CAD Strengthens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,749.70 | +0.51% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | -0.20% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60 | -0.05% |
| WTI Crude | 82.87 | +4.55% |
| Natural Gas | 2.69 | +0.90% |
| Gold | 4,091.70 | +1.37% |
| Brent Crude | 88.19 | +4.88% |
| Bitcoin | 64,364.83 | +0.77% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Market Participants Survey | - | - | "" |
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 3.42 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.192,3.381,3.234,3.056,3.518,3.42
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-07-31) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Prel | 0.10 | - | 04:30 |
- TSX advances 0.51% on energy gains while CAD strengthens
- BoC holds policy rate at 2.27% with CPI at 2.8% YoY
- GDP release Friday eyed after yesterday’s survey
Yesterday's Recap
The Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey released at 06:30 ET drew limited immediate reaction as markets focused on incoming commodity moves. The S&P/TSX closed 0.51% higher at 35,749.70, led by energy and materials sectors. USD/CAD fell 0.20% to 1.41 while WTI crude jumped 4.55% to 82.87 and Brent rose 4.88% to 88.19.
Canada’s 10-year government yield declined 3.43% to 3.42% as the 2-year yield edged up 1.00% to 2.27%. Natural gas added 0.90% and gold gained 1.37% to 4,091.70. The moves reflected firmer risk appetite and lower US-Canada rate differentials after the survey print.
Broader equity breadth remained constructive despite ongoing US tariff concerns. Internal trade barriers continue to impose larger costs on Canadian growth than recent US tariffs according to new analysis. RBC notes the economy can absorb latest tariff measures with only sector-specific pain rather than broad contraction.
Economic pessimism among households has eased modestly even as trade tensions persist.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to Friday’s GDP month-over-month release scheduled for 04:30 ET, with consensus at 0.2% following the prior 0.5% print. A preliminary GDP figure is also due at the same time. No major Canadian data prints are scheduled for today, leaving markets to digest global central-bank signals.
Traders will monitor any follow-through in energy prices ahead of the weekend. The absence of domestic events keeps focus on external drivers including US policy decisions and oil inventory trends. Positioning for the GDP outcome is expected to build gradually through Thursday.
CIBC forecasts May GDP growth at 0.1% and expects the Bank of Canada to remain on hold.
Other Economic Notes
Internal trade barriers continue to impose larger costs on Canadian growth than recent US tariffs according to new analysis. RBC notes the economy can absorb latest tariff measures with only sector-specific pain rather than broad contraction. Economic pessimism among households has eased modestly even as trade tensions persist.
CIBC forecasts May GDP growth at 0.1% and expects the Bank of Canada to remain on hold. <i>↓ p.2</i>
