Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoC Split on Rebound Outlook Weighs on TSX
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,333.80 | -1.16% |
| USD/CAD | 1.40 | -0.42% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.28% |
| WTI Crude | 83.60 | -1.02% |
| Natural Gas | 2.70 | -0.84% |
| Gold | 4,136.60 | +2.53% |
| Brent Crude | 90.27 | -0.52% |
| Bitcoin | 64,567.11 | +1.03% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoC Market Participants Survey | - | - | "" |
Canada 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield %: 3.42 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.192–4.062 | Trend(6pt): 1.192,3.381,3.234,3.056,3.518,3.42
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-07-31) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Prel | 0.10 | - | 04:30 |
- BoC minutes revealed internal divisions over the durability of Canada's economic rebound amid mixed growth signals.
- S&P/TSX fell 1.16% while Canada 10Y yields dropped 3.43% as investors priced in policy caution.
- USD/CAD eased 0.42% to 1.40 with WTI crude declining 1.02% to $83.60.
Yesterday's Recap
The Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey released yesterday showed subdued expectations for near-term rate cuts. Equity markets reacted negatively as the S&P/TSX closed down 1.16% at 35,333.80. Government bond yields moved lower with the 10Y falling 3.43% to 3.42% while the 2Y edged up 1.00% to 2.27%.
The Canadian dollar strengthened modestly against the USD, with USD/CAD declining 0.42% to 1.40. Energy prices weighed on sentiment as WTI crude dropped 1.02% to $83.60 and natural gas fell 0.84%. Gold advanced 2.53% to $4,136.60, providing a partial offset in commodity-linked sectors.
Overall market moves reflected caution ahead of tomorrow's GDP release. EUR/CAD rose 0.28% to 1.61 and Brent crude eased 0.52% to 90.27, while Bitcoin gained 1.03% to 64,567.11.
The Day Ahead
Canada's GDP month-over-month reading is scheduled for release tomorrow at 04:30 ET, with consensus pointing to a 0.2% increase after the prior 0.5% gain. A preliminary GDP figure will also be published at the same time. No other major Canadian data releases are listed for today.
Market participants will monitor the prints for confirmation of the rebound's momentum. Energy and currency markets may see volatility if the figures deviate from expectations. The data will feed directly into Bank of Canada assessments of growth sustainability.
Traders are also watching oil price swings and any follow-through from recent US tariff commentary that could affect export sectors.
Other Economic Notes
Canada's CPI stood at 2.80% year-over-year as of June, keeping inflation above the BoC's 2% target midpoint. The policy rate remains at 2.27%, supporting a restrictive stance while officials assess incoming data. TSX performance continues to track commodity price swings, particularly in energy and metals.
Government of Canada yields reflect divided views on the pace of any future easing. Broader fiscal and trade uncertainties, including potential US tariff impacts, add downside risks to the outlook. National Bank analysis highlighted uneven sectoral effects from any new tariffs, with energy and manufacturing most exposed.
