Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
GDP Beat Eases BoC Cut Bets as Oil Slumps
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,226.10 | -0.79% |
| USD/CAD | 1.40 | -0.18% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | +0.18% |
| WTI Crude | 79.82 | -5.73% |
| Natural Gas | 2.75 | +0.07% |
| Gold | 4,104.00 | +1.36% |
| Brent Crude | 83.65 | -7.18% |
| Bitcoin | 62,652.81 | -1.31% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate (%): 6.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7,5,5.7,6.8,6.6,6.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-08-04) | |||
| Trade Balance | 4,240m | 3,000m | 04:30 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | - | 50.20 | 05:30 |
| Friday (2026-08-07) | |||
| Unemployment Rate | 6.50 | 6.50 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 18,200 | 12,500 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 600 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 17,500 | - | 04:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 56.20 | 55.50 | 06:00 |
- May GDP rose 0.3%, beating forecasts and supporting a pause in easing
- TSX fell 0.79% while WTI crude dropped 5.73% to $79.82
- USD/CAD declined 0.18% to 1.40 as Canadian yields showed mixed moves
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets absorbed a positive May GDP print of 0.3% that exceeded the 0.2% consensus and reinforced views that the economy avoided deeper contraction. The S&P/TSX closed 0.79% lower at 35,226.10 amid broad commodity weakness. WTI crude fell 5.73% to $79.82 and Brent dropped 7.18% to $83.65, pressuring energy-linked equities.
USD/CAD eased 0.18% to 1.40 while EUR/CAD rose 0.18% to 1.62. The Canada 2-year yield climbed 1 basis point to 2.27% and the 10-year yield fell 3.43 basis points to 3.42%. Gold advanced 1.36% to $4,104 as investors sought haven assets.
No major domestic data releases occurred on August 2, leaving price action driven by the prior GDP surprise and global oil moves. Natural gas edged up 0.07% to $2.75 while Bitcoin slipped 1.31% to $62,652.81.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the August 4 Trade Balance release, expected to narrow to C$3.0 billion from C$4.24 billion. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.2, offering an early read on August factory conditions. Attention then shifts to the August 7 labor report, where the unemployment rate is projected to hold at 6.5% and employment is seen rising by 12,500.
The Ivey PMI is expected to ease to 55.5 from 56.2. These prints will inform whether recent resilience alters the Bank of Canada’s easing trajectory. Traders will also monitor any follow-through from the May GDP beat into forward growth estimates.
Full-time and part-time employment changes plus labor force participation will provide additional detail on August 7.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s rolling adjustment continues after the technical recession, with May GDP strength suggesting underlying momentum remains intact. Contained inflation near 2.8% has allowed policymakers to pause without immediate pressure to resume cuts. Energy price volatility poses downside risks to near-term growth and the current account.
Government of Canada yields reflect a cautious market that prices limited further easing this year. Equity and currency moves highlight Canada’s sensitivity to global commodity cycles and U.S. policy signals.
The Bank of Canada policy rate remains at 2.27% as of June, consistent with the need for durable evidence on growth before any policy shift.
