Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Trade Surplus Beats, TSX Climbs on PMI
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 35,801.60 | +1.63% |
| USD/CAD | 1.41 | +0.04% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.62 | -0.08% |
| WTI Crude | 76.20 | +0.57% |
| Natural Gas | 2.70 | +0.78% |
| Gold | 4,235.10 | +3.41% |
| Brent Crude | 80.46 | +1.39% |
| Bitcoin | 64,053.19 | -0.00% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 3,700m | 3,000m | 3,860m |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53 | 50.20 | 53.50 |
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate (%): 6.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7,5,5.7,6.8,6.6,6.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-08-07) | |||
| Unemployment Rate | 6.50 | 6.50 | 04:30 |
| Employment Change | 18,200 | 15,000 | 04:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 600 | - | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 65 | - | 04:30 |
| Part-Time Employment Change | 17,500 | - | 04:30 |
| Ivey PMI Seasonally Adjusted | 56.20 | 55.50 | 06:00 |
- Canada trade surplus widened to C$3.86 billion in June, beating consensus.
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.5, above expectations.
- TSX advanced 1.63 percent while Canada 10-year yields fell 3.43 percent.
Yesterday's Recap
Canada posted a larger-than-expected trade surplus of C$3.86 billion in June, driven by stronger exports that exceeded the C$3.0 billion consensus. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.5 from 53.0 previously, signaling sustained expansion in factory activity. Equity markets responded positively, with the S&P/TSX index closing at 35,801.60 for a 1.63 percent gain.
The Canadian dollar held near 1.41 against the USD despite a modest 0.04 percent softening. Energy prices supported the move higher, as WTI crude rose 0.57 percent to $76.20 and Brent gained 1.39 percent. The Canada 10-year government yield declined 3.43 percent to 3.42 percent, while the 2-year yield edged up 1.00 percent to 2.27 percent.
Gold surged 3.41 percent to $4,235.10, reflecting broader safe-haven demand. Natural gas added 0.78 percent to $2.70, further bolstering resource-linked equities.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on Friday’s labor-market data, including the unemployment rate and employment change figures expected at 6.5 percent and 15,000 respectively. Analysts will watch for any deviation in full-time and part-time employment splits that could signal underlying labor-market softness. The Ivey PMI seasonally adjusted reading is also due, with consensus pointing to a modest pullback to 55.5 from 56.2.
These releases will provide the latest read on consumer-facing activity ahead of the next Bank of Canada decision window. Energy traders will monitor any follow-through in crude prices after recent geopolitical headlines. Fixed-income markets are likely to price in any surprises relative to the current 2.27 percent policy rate.
Other Economic Notes
Headline CPI at 2.80 percent year-over-year continues to anchor expectations around the 2.27 percent policy rate. Recent strength in manufacturing and trade data suggests domestic demand remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs. Government of Canada bond curves have steepened modestly, with the 10-year yield falling while shorter tenors held near the policy rate.
Energy export revenues are providing a buffer to the current-account balance and supporting CAD crosses. Equity investors appear to be rotating toward resource names as oil and natural gas prices stabilize above recent lows. Bitcoin was little changed at 64,053.19.
