Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CAD Weakens as US Tariffs Reshape Outlook
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,714.10 | +0.26% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | +0.45% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | +0.05% |
| WTI Crude | 82.45 | -3.01% |
| Natural Gas | 2.80 | +0.54% |
| Gold | 4,697.50 | +1.22% |
| Brent Crude | 88.19 | -4.32% |
| Bitcoin | 79,279.21 | +0.40% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Rate %: 6.4 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7,5,5.7,6.8,6.6,6.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-08-27) | |||
| Current Account Balance | -7,200m | 5,600m | 08:30 |
| Friday (2026-08-28) | |||
| GDP Growth Annualized | -0.10 | 3.40 | 08:30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0 | - | 08:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Preliminary | - | - | 08:30 |
| Tuesday (2026-09-01) | |||
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.50 | - | 09:30 |
- US-Canada trade tensions escalate with 50% tariffs prompting dollar-for-dollar retaliation plans
- S&P/TSX rises 0.26% while USD/CAD climbs 0.45% to 1.39 amid growth concerns
- BoC holds policy rate at 2.25% ahead of September 2 decision as CPI sits at 3.03%
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets showed resilience as the S&P/TSX advanced 0.26% to 36,714.10 despite escalating trade rhetoric. The Canadian dollar weakened sharply, with USD/CAD rising 0.45% to 1.39 after trade talks collapsed and officials signaled counter-tariffs. Energy prices declined, with WTI crude falling 3.01% to $82.45 and Brent dropping 4.32% to $88.19 on retaliation fears.
Government bond yields moved in opposite directions, with the 2-year yield rising 1.00% to 2.27% while the 10-year yield fell 3.43% to 3.42%. No major data releases occurred, leaving tariff developments as the dominant driver of sentiment. Natural gas edged higher by 0.54% to $2.80 while gold gained 1.22% to $4,697.50 as investors sought safety.
Broader risk assets including Bitcoin rose modestly amid the mixed macro backdrop. RBC and TD Economics both noted tariffs are reshaping the near-term GDP and currency path, adding downside risks for export-oriented sectors.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the Current Account Balance release on August 27, expected to swing to a C$5.6 billion surplus from a prior deficit. GDP figures follow on August 28, with annualized growth forecast at 3.4% after last quarter’s contraction and monthly growth seen at 0.2%. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on September 1 will provide an early read on September activity.
Markets will also monitor any further tariff announcements from both sides ahead of the September 2 Bank of Canada decision. Energy price volatility remains elevated given the direct exposure of Canadian exports to US duties. Fixed-income traders will watch for any shifts in term premium as growth risks mount.
The trade dispute adds downside risks to the growth outlook, particularly for energy and manufacturing linkages.
Other Economic Notes
Canada’s 3.03% CPI reading continues to anchor expectations for steady policy amid external shocks. Industrial real estate demand remains firm, evidenced by LG Electronics’ large Toronto-area lease, signaling underlying domestic strength. Broader inflation dynamics show asset prices rather than interest rates as the primary driver, limiting room for near-term easing.
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