Canada Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
TSX Slips as Trade Frictions Weigh on CAD
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX | 36,813.70 | -0.39% |
| USD/CAD | 1.38 | -0.03% |
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.02% |
| WTI Crude | 82.44 | +0.26% |
| Natural Gas | 2.90 | +2.15% |
| Gold | 4,647.60 | +1.07% |
| Brent Crude | 87.31 | -0.60% |
| Bitcoin | 79,406.33 | +0.48% |
| Canada 2Y Govt Yield | 2.27% | +1.00% |
| Canada 10Y Govt Yield | 3.42% | -3.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Canada Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | %: 6.4 (2026-07-01) | Range: 4.8–7.1 | Trend(6pt): 7,5,5.7,6.8,6.6,6.4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance | -7,200m | -2,000m | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-08-28) | |||
| GDP Growth Annualized | -0.10 | 3.40 | 04:30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0 | - | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| GDP Month-over-Month Preliminary | - | - | 04:30 |
- Current Account Balance release today may highlight external pressures amid reviving US tariff concerns.
- Bank earnings from RBC and National Bank beat estimates, supporting TSX despite broader market dip.
- BoC policy rate holds at 2.25% with CPI YoY at 3.03%, tempering near-term easing bets ahead of GDP data.
Yesterday's Recap
Canadian markets closed lower as the S&P/TSX fell 0.39% to 36,813.70 amid renewed trade dispute worries that pushed the Canadian dollar to a one-week low. USD/CAD eased 0.03% to 1.38 while the 10-year government yield dropped 3.43% to 3.42% and the 2-year yield rose 1.00% to 2.27%. Royal Bank of Canada reported record third-quarter income of C$6.02 billion, and National Bank of Canada beat profit estimates through strength in capital markets and wealth management.
TD economists highlighted potential for an investment supercycle if personal and business tax reforms advance. No major data prints occurred, leaving market moves driven by external tariff headlines and energy price shifts. WTI Crude rose 0.26% to 82.44 while Natural Gas gained 2.15% to 2.90.
Gold advanced 1.07% to 4,647.60 on safe-haven demand as Bitcoin gained 0.48% to 79,406.33.
The Day Ahead
Markets focus on today's 04:30 ET Current Account Balance print, with consensus at -2.0 billion after the prior -7.2 billion reading. Attention then shifts to tomorrow's high-impact GDP Growth Annualized release, expected at 3.4% versus the prior -0.1%, alongside GDP Month-over-Month at 0.2% consensus. These figures will clarify whether recent consumer resilience extends into broader activity.
No Bank of Canada speakers or policy decisions are scheduled. Energy traders will monitor any follow-through from global oil supply talks. CAD crosses may react sharply if the current account or GDP prints deviate from expectations.
Brent Crude settled at 87.31 after a 0.60% decline.
Other Economic Notes
Major bank results underscore capital markets resilience even as National Bank's segment lagged larger peers. TD's call for tax and regulatory reforms to unlock faster growth aligns with Ottawa's extension of tariff-free US steel quotas through year-end. Housing starts data showed further softening while Alberta well licenses declined 4%, pointing to uneven domestic investment.
Trade friction risks from new US tariffs continue to cloud the outlook for exporters. <i>↓ p.2</i>
