Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Turkey GDP Slows as Poland Eyes Rate Hold
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 13,704.00 | +0.30% |
| iShares Poland | 40.05 | -1.14% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.24 | +0.19% |
| EUR/HUF | 355.29 | +0.49% |
| EUR/CZK | 24.27 | +0.02% |
| USD/TRY | 45.93 | +0.07% |
| Brent Crude | 94.22 | -0.80% |
| Gold | 4,548.10 | +1.63% |
| Bitcoin | 70,646.00 | -3.99% |
| Poland 10Y Govt Yield | 5.58% | +0.00% |
| Hungary 10Y Govt Yield | 6.27% | -12.06% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.40 | - | 0.10 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 3.40 | 2.70 | 2.50 |
Poland Policy Rate Hold Context | Type: macro_line | Poland 3M Rate %: 3.85 (2026-04-01) | Range: 0.21–7.51 | Trend(6pt): 0.21,7.21,5.77,5.85,3.82,3.85
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 05:00 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 8.10 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 4.18 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 32.37 | - | 23:00 |
- Turkey Q1 GDP growth eased to 2.5% y/y versus 3.4% prior, missing consensus
- Poland economy shows resilience with Q1 GDP at 3.5% and finance minister flags top-tier EU growth ranking
- Regional FX stable with EUR/PLN at 4.24 and BIST 100 rising 0.30% on the day
Yesterday's Recap
Turkey reported weaker-than-expected GDP prints with quarter-over-quarter growth falling to 0.1% from 0.4% prior and year-over-year expansion slowing to 2.5% against a 2.7% consensus. The data underscore cooling domestic demand in the largest non-EU Emerging Europe economy. Polish equities underperformed with iShares Poland declining 1.14% while the BIST 100 advanced 0.30%.
EUR/PLN edged 0.19% higher to 4.24 and EUR/HUF rose 0.49% to 355.29. Hungary 10-year yields fell sharply by 12.06% to 6.27% amid thin volume. Poland’s finance minister highlighted above-average economic resilience driven by strong domestic demand and reiterated ambitions for top-three EU economy status.
No major releases emerged from Czechia, Hungary or Romania.
The Day Ahead
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council meets at 05:00 ET with markets pricing a hold at the current 3.75% policy rate. Turkey will release its headline unemployment rate on 3 June followed by May inflation figures on 4 June that remain structurally elevated. Limited activity is scheduled across Czechia, Hungary and Romania.
Traders will monitor any signals from Warsaw on the timing of potential future easing. Regional equity and FX markets are expected to stay range-bound ahead of the Polish decision.
Other Economic Notes
Poland continues to draw EU Recovery and Resilience Facility disbursements after meeting judicial benchmarks, supporting fiscal space. Hungary’s forint strength is altering export competitiveness and prompting portfolio rebalancing discussions. Romania maintains its 2029 euro-adoption timeline with convergence data due mid-month.
Energy import dependence on non-Russian sources remains a shared vulnerability across the four EU members. Turkey’s narrower April fiscal deficit provided modest relief to the lira.
Global Macro News
The ECB deposit rate stands at 2.00% with euro-area unemployment at 6.70%, anchoring external conditions for the region’s trade-linked economies. Brent crude fell 0.80% to 94.22 while gold rose 1.63% to 4,548.10, reflecting safe-haven demand. Bitcoin declined 3.99% to 70,646 amid broader risk-off sentiment.
<i>↓ p.2</i>
