Emerging Europe Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
NBP Holds at 3.75%, Turkish GDP Slows
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 13,965.70 | -1.65% |
| iShares Poland | 40.01 | -0.44% |
| EUR/PLN | 4.24 | +0.17% |
| EUR/HUF | 355.55 | +0.48% |
| EUR/CZK | 24.20 | +0.08% |
| USD/TRY | 45.96 | +0.04% |
| Brent Crude | 97.06 | -0.77% |
| Gold | 4,501.10 | +1.45% |
| Bitcoin | 63,799.99 | -4.35% |
| Poland 10Y Govt Yield | 5.58% | +0.00% |
| Hungary 10Y Govt Yield | 6.27% | -12.06% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.40 | - | 0.10 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 3.40 | 2.70 | 2.50 |
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
Poland vs Hungary 10Y Yield Spread | Type: macro_line | Poland %: 5.58 (2026-04-01) | Range: 1.6–7.82 | Trend(5pt): 1.61,6.28,5.54,5.94,5.58 | Hungary %: 6.27 (2026-04-01) | Range: 2.83–10.25 | Trend(6pt): 2.83,9.23,7.01,6.82,7.13,6.27
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 8.10 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 4.18 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 32.37 | - | 23:00 |
- NBP kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% as expected.
- Turkey Q1 GDP growth missed forecasts, printing 2.5% y/y and 0.1% q/q.
- EBRD cut Poland’s 2026 growth outlook to 3.5% amid external risks.
Yesterday's Recap
Turkey released weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP figures, with year-over-year growth slowing to 2.5% from 3.4% previously and quarter-over-quarter expansion dropping to 0.1%. The print highlighted cooling momentum in the largest Emerging Europe economy. Poland’s Monetary Policy Council voted to hold the benchmark rate at 3.75%, leaving policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting.
Equity markets closed mixed, with BIST 100 falling 1.65% while iShares Poland declined 0.44%. Currency moves were modest, as EUR/PLN rose 0.17% to 4.24 and EUR/HUF climbed 0.48% to 355.55. Hungary’s 10-year government yield dropped sharply by 12.06% to 6.27%, while Poland’s 10-year yield held steady at 5.58%.
Brent crude eased 0.77% to $97.06 per barrel.
The Day Ahead
Turkey unemployment data were released overnight. June inflation figures are due this evening, covering both month-over-month and year-over-year readings, with prior prints at 4.18% m/m and 32.37% y/y. Markets will watch for any signs of renewed price pressures that could influence CBRT policy.
No major data releases are scheduled for Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary or Romania. Regional equity and FX markets are expected to remain sensitive to the Turkish prints and any ECB signals.
Other Economic Notes
The EBRD lowered its Poland growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, citing external pressures and slower EU demand. Hungary recorded stronger Q1 momentum driven by consumption, supported by pre-election fiscal transfers. OECD projections point to subdued Hungarian growth of 1.6% in 2026.
Poland continues to draw EU recovery funds without new disputes, while Hungary seeks partial release of blocked cohesion funds. Energy import dependence remains a shared vulnerability across the region.
Global Macro News
The ECB deposit rate stands at 2.00%, providing a stable external anchor for CEE central banks. Eurozone unemployment held at 6.70%. Gold rose 1.45% to $4,501.10, reflecting safe-haven demand, while Bitcoin fell 4.35%.
US political developments, including House votes on foreign policy, added to global risk sentiment. Brent crude’s decline weighed on energy exporters but eased import costs for CEE economies. Regional currencies showed limited reaction to broader moves, with USD/TRY edging 0.04% higher to 45.96.
