| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,138.41 | -0.38% |
| DAX | 25,284.26 | -0.02% |
| CAC 40 | 8,580.75 | -0.47% |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | -0.28% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.88 | +0.26% |
| EUR/JPY | 184.51 | +0.31% |
| Gold | 5,377.80 | +2.82% |
| Brent Crude | 77.91 | +7.49% |
| Bitcoin | 66,779.37 | -0.32% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.81% | -0.27% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.10 | -0.20 | 21:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 1.50 | - | 21:00 |
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI | 49.20 | - | 22:15 |
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI | 48.10 | 49.20 | 22:45 |
| Full Year GDP Growth | 0.70 | - | 23:00 |
| Government Budget | -3.40 | - | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.40 | - | 19:30 |
| Unemployment Level Change | 30,400 | 37,500 | 22:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1 | - | 00:00 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.40 | 0.20 | 00:00 |
Eurozone markets closed mixed on March 1, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.38% to 6,138.41 amid risk aversion, while Germany's DAX slipped 0.02% to 25,284.26 on industrial resilience. France's CAC 40 fell 0.47% to 8,580.75, pressured by luxury weakness. German retail sales MoM for January had consensus of -0.2% (previous: 0.1%), with YoY previous at 1.5% and no consensus.Spain's HCOB Manufacturing PMI previous was 49.2 with no consensus. Italy's HCOB Manufacturing PMI had consensus of 49.2 (previous: 48.1), full-year GDP growth previous at 0.7% with no consensus, and government budget previous at -3.4% with no consensus. EUR/USD weakened 0.28% to 1.18, EUR/GBP rose 0.26% to 0.88, and EUR/JPY gained 0.31% to 184.51.German 10Y Bund yield fell to 2.81% (change -0.27%), reflecting safe-haven demand. Gold surged 2.82% to 5,377.80, Brent crude jumped 7.49% to 77.91, and Bitcoin dipped 0.32% to 66,779.37.
Focus shifts to Netherlands' preliminary YoY inflation for February at 19:30 ET (previous: 2.4%, no consensus), which could sway ECB rate expectations. Spain's February unemployment change follows at 22:00 ET (consensus: 37,500, previous: 30,400), shedding light on peripheral labor trends. Italy's preliminary YoY inflation for February releases at 00:00 ET (previous: 1%, no consensus), with MoM consensus at 0.2% (previous: 0.4%).Spain's HCOB Services PMI is due at 22:15 ET (consensus: 52.9, previous: 53.5), Italy's at 22:45 ET (previous: 52.9, no consensus). Italy's January headline unemployment rate arrives at 23:00 ET (consensus: 5.6%, previous: 5.6%). France's January industrial production MoM rounds out at 21:45 ET (consensus: 0.7%, previous: -0.7%).
Eurozone faces ongoing disinflation, with energy volatility influencing core trends toward the ECB's 2% target. Labor markets show strength, as Eurozone unemployment stands at 6.70%, aiding spending but posing wage inflation risks in Germany and France. Fiscal challenges in Italy and Spain highlight needs for reforms to enhance productivity and ease debt burdens amid growth headwinds.
Middle East developments include celebrations in Tehran over Ali Khamenei's death, with President Masoud Pezeshkian leading, potentially stabilizing oil flows and impacting Eurozone energy costs as Brent rose sharply. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China amid Trump tariff tensions, aiming to diversify trade and buffer EUR/USD pressures. Ukraine updates feature UK PM Starmer pledging Ukrainian experts to counter Iranian drones in the Gulf, elevating geopolitical risks and safe-haven gold demand.France bolsters Middle East military presence after drone attacks on its assets, increasing defense outlays. EU Commission chief von der Leyen advances Mercosur deal despite French objections, risking internal divisions but boosting exports. Analyses highlight Europe's vulnerability to U.S.-dominated Visa and Mastercard, urging digital independence.Other notes: Rolls-Royce open to German role in UK's fighter jet project; Berlin film festival faces leadership crisis; Rajasthan promotes tourism at Berlin fair.
The ECB held the deposit rate at 2.00% in its latest meeting, consistent with projections for gradual disinflation to the 2% target. Guidance remains data-dependent, emphasizing vigilance on wages and services inflation. Quantitative tightening proceeds, with PEPP reinvestments phasing out by year-end, supporting yield normalization.The Transmission Protection Instrument serves as a safeguard against fragmentation, though unused, particularly for peripherals like Italy. Markets eye potential easing if inflation eases, with focus on upcoming PMI and CPI releases influencing euro dynamics.