Yesterday's Recap
German retail sales declined 0.9% month-over-month in February, missing the -0.2% consensus after a prior 1.2% rise, while year-over-year growth slowed to 1.2% from 2.5%, reflecting cautious spending in the bloc's largest economy. Spain's HCOB Manufacturing PMI edged to 50.0, just below the 50.1 forecast but up from 49.2, suggesting tentative factory stabilization. Italy's HCOB Manufacturing PMI outperformed at 50.6 versus 49.5 expected, from 48.1 prior, though full-year GDP growth was cut to 0.5% from 0.7%, with the government budget deficit improving to -3.1% from -3.4%.
Netherlands preliminary inflation stayed at 2.4% year-over-year, matching the previous figure. Spanish unemployment change surprised positively at 3,584 versus 37,500 consensus, down from 30,400 prior. Italy's preliminary inflation rose to 1.6% year-over-year from 1.0%, with month-over-month at 0.8% beating 0.2% expected from 0.4% prior.
Spain's HCOB Services PMI softened to 51.9 against 52.8 consensus, from 53.5. Italy's HCOB Services PMI dipped to 52.3 from 52.9. Italy's unemployment rate fell to 5.1% versus 5.6% expected, from 5.5%.
French industrial production held at 0.5% month-over-month, matching consensus and prior. Italian retail sales stagnated at -0.8% month-over-month, missing 0.2% consensus and repeating the prior drop. Markets ended mixed: Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.50% at 5,782.89, DAX up 1.74% at 24,205.36, CAC 40 down 1.49% at 8,045.80, EUR/USD off 0.18% at 1.16, EUR/GBP down 0.14% at 0.87, EUR/JPY up 0.10% at 182.82, gold down 0.61% at 5,088.80, Brent crude up 2.74% at 83.63, Bitcoin down 2.42% at 70,950.33, and German 10Y Bund yield down 0.27% at 2.81%.
The Day Ahead
German factory orders for January release today, with prior month-over-month at 7.8% and consensus at -4.3%, offering insights into industrial momentum after recent PMI variability. Eurozone calendar is otherwise quiet, with focus on potential ECB remarks post-recent data. Spanish services PMI may see final adjustments from yesterday's 51.9 preliminary versus 52.8 expected.
Watch for follow-ups on French production stability and Italian labor gains, though no major releases are scheduled. Broader attention includes monitoring energy prices amid Middle East developments.
