Eurozone Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Eurozone Inflation Edges Up Amid Mixed Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,782.89 | -1.50% |
| DAX | 24,205.36 | +1.74% |
| CAC 40 | 8,045.80 | -1.49% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.23% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87 | -0.15% |
| EUR/JPY | 182.64 | -0.31% |
| Gold | 5,123.20 | +1.14% |
| Brent Crude | 84.81 | -0.70% |
| Bitcoin | 70,448.74 | -3.11% |
| German 2Y Bund | - | - |
| German 10Y Bund | 2.81% | -0.27% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 1.20 | -0.20 | -0.90 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 2.50 | - | 1.20 |
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI | 49.20 | 50.10 | 50 |
| HCOB Manufacturing PMI | 48.10 | 49.50 | 50.60 |
| Full Year GDP Growth | 0.70 | - | 0.50 |
| Government Budget | -3.40 | - | -3.10 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 2.40 | - | 2.40 |
| Unemployment Level Change | 30,400 | 37,500 | 3,584 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1 | - | 1.60 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month Preliminary | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 7.80 | -4.30 | 21:00 |
| Saturday (2026-03-07) | |||
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 7.80 | -4.30 | 21:00 |
- Eurozone inflation rose to 1.9% in February, driven by food and services, with Italian figures surging unexpectedly.
- German retail sales disappointed, contrasting with improvements in Spanish and Italian unemployment.
- Markets mixed: DAX gained while Euro Stoxx and CAC declined; EUR weakened slightly.
Yesterday's Recap
German retail sales dropped 0.9% month-over-month in February, missing consensus of -0.2%, and rose 1.2% year-over-year, signaling softer consumer demand. Spain's HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered 50.0, just below expected 50.1, showing factory stagnation. Italy's HCOB Manufacturing PMI outperformed at 50.6 versus 49.5 consensus, but full-year GDP growth eased to 0.5% from previous 0.7%, with government budget improving to -3.1% from -3.4%.
Netherlands inflation held at 2.4% year-over-year preliminary. Spain's unemployment change was +3,584, better than consensus +37,500 and previous +30,400, indicating labor market strength. Italian inflation jumped to 1.6% year-over-year preliminary from 1.0%, with month-over-month at 0.8% versus 0.2% expected.
Spain's HCOB Services PMI softened to 51.9 from consensus 52.8. Italy's HCOB Services PMI eased to 52.3 from 52.9, while unemployment fell to 5.1% versus expected 5.6%. French industrial production met forecasts at 0.5% month-over-month.
Italian retail sales declined 0.8% month-over-month, missing 0.2% consensus. Markets were mixed: Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.50% to 5,782.89, DAX rose 1.74% to 24,205.36, CAC 40 dropped 1.49% to 8,045.80. EUR/USD slipped 0.23% to 1.16, EUR/GBP eased 0.15% to 0.87, EUR/JPY declined 0.31% to 182.64.
Gold climbed 1.14% to 5,123.20, Brent crude fell 0.70% to 84.81, Bitcoin dropped 3.11% to 70,448.74. German 10Y Bund yield decreased 0.27% to 2.81%.
The Day Ahead
German factory orders for January release at 21:00 ET, with consensus expecting -4.3% month-over-month after previous 7.8% surge, potentially signaling industrial slowdown and influencing ECB expectations. No other major Eurozone data scheduled, but watch for any ECB speaker comments on inflation and oil pressures amid global tensions. Saturday includes no key events listed.
Other Economic Notes
Eurozone inflation climbed to 1.9% in February, fueled by food and services, complicating ECB normalization amid oil surge risks. Recovery remains uneven, with German data softening against Spanish and Italian labor gains. Eurozone unemployment stands at 6.70%.
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